CAJ | 학술논문

以福建省1987-2008年森林火灾发生次数的数据资料为基础，运用加权马尔科夫链预测方法建立预测模型，对2009年福建省森林火灾发生次数进行预测，并利用该方法对2007-2008年森林火灾发生次数进行检验。结果表明，预测结果与实际结果高度吻合，而且预测精度较高，都大于85％，效果较好，说明加权马尔科夫链方法可以用于短期森林火灾预测。
이복건성1987-2008년삼림화재발생차수적수거자료위기출，운용가권마이과부련예측방법건립예측모형，대2009년복건성삼림화재발생차수진행예측，병이용해방법대2007-2008년삼림화재발생차수진행검험。결과표명，예측결과여실제결과고도문합，이차예측정도교고，도대우85％，효과교호，설명가권마이과부련방법가이용우단기삼림화재예측。
Based on the data for 1987-2008 of the forest fire disaster in Fujian province,the prediction model was established by using the weighted Markov-chain prediction method,and applied the prediction model to predicting the number of the forest fire disaster in 2009.Then use this method to validate the data for 2007-2008. The result showed that the predicted result was highly consistent with the actual result,and the forecasting precision was more than 85%,which indicated that the weighted Markov-chain prediction method could be used in short-term prediction of the forest fire disaster.