CAJ | 학술논문

以1960-1990年为基准期、1991-2005年为影响期，使用HSPF（Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran）水文模型定量分析了影响期气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流的影响及其各自的贡献率。结果表明：1）相对于1960-1990年，1991-1995、1996-2000年的年平均径流深分别增加了271.9和246.3 mm，2001-2005年的年平均径流深减少64.1 mm。其中，气候变化对径流的影响分量在65.6%~88.0%之间，人类活动对径流的影响分量在12.0%~34.4%之间。2）人类活动对极值流量有影响。在影响期，年最大7 d平均流量和最大15 d平均流量模拟值大于对应的实测极值流量。3）在气候变化因子中，流域降水量的增加，是引起20世纪90年代信江流域径流显著增大的主要原因，其次是蒸发量的下降；人类活动包括植树造林、城市化以及水利工程修建，是影响流域径流变化的次要原因。
이1960-1990년위기준기、1991-2005년위영향기，사용HSPF（Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran）수문모형정량분석료영향기기후변화화인류활동대신강류역경류적영향급기각자적공헌솔。결과표명：1）상대우1960-1990년，1991-1995、1996-2000년적년평균경류심분별증가료271.9화246.3 mm，2001-2005년적년평균경류심감소64.1 mm。기중，기후변화대경류적영향분량재65.6%~88.0%지간，인류활동대경류적영향분량재12.0%~34.4%지간。2）인류활동대겁치류량유영향。재영향기，년최대7 d평균류량화최대15 d평균류량모의치대우대응적실측겁치류량。3）재기후변화인자중，류역강수량적증가，시인기20세기90년대신강류역경류현저증대적주요원인，기차시증발량적하강；인류활동포괄식수조림、성시화이급수리공정수건，시영향류역경류변화적차요원인。
It is widely understood that hydrological cycles are complex processes influenced by both climate change and human activities. With global warming, the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a challenge to researchers and policy markers.TheXinjiang Riverislocated inthePoyang LakeBasin,whichis one of the five major rivers in JiangxiProvince. Studies show that in 1990s therewas an obvious rising trend in precipitation and a downtrend in evaporation inthePoyang LakeBasin. Meanwhile human activities grew intensely. Thus, the response of hydrological processes to climate change and human activitieswere investigatedin this paper byusing the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran(HSPF),whichwas calibrated and verified for the baseline period 1960-1990, and then used to reconstruct the natural runoff for the affected periodduring 1991-2005. The results indicated that:1)The annual runoff increased by 217.9and246.3mm during 1991-1995 and 1996-2000, respectively, but decreased by64.1mm during 2001-2005,ascompared withthose inthe baseline period of 1960-1990. The impact of climate change madeabout 65.6%-88.0% ofthecontributiontothe changes in the annual runoff, while that of human activities madeabout 12.0%-34.4%of thecontribution to the changes in the annual runoff;2)Extreme serieswere affected by human activities. During affected period, the modeled 7-day annual maximum flows and 15-day annual maximum flowswere smaller than their observed counterparts; 3)The responses of hydrological processes to climate change and human activitieswere different.In climate changefactors,the increase of precipitation played a significant role in the increaseof runoff in 1990s, while the decrease of evaporation played minor role. Human activities such as tree planting, urbanization and reservoir constructionwere the secondary factors that can influence annual runoff. In this study, we found that reforesting can increase runoff while urbanization and the reservoir construction will cause runoff decrease. It can be predicted that with the development oftheXinjiang RiverBasin, human activities will exert more influence on river discharge ofthebasin.