CAJ | 학술논문

基于2000-2010年全国森林病害发生面积、发生程度、全国森林面积等数据，定量估算森林直接经济损失与生态服务功能损失，分别采用多元线性回归法、方差分析方法分析我国森林病害发生面积、损失的特点与趋势及我国森林病害的主要发生区域，结果表明：（1）我国森林病害发生面积从2000年的9.35×105 hm2增加到2010年的1.29×106 hm2，增长38.11%，上升趋势显著。其中，轻度发生面积上升趋势显著，而中度与重度发生面积增长不明显；（2）2000-2010年间，西南区森林病害发生面积上升趋势显著，华北、华中、华南、西南、西北区轻度发生及西南区中度发生面积上升趋势显著；（3）导致森林病害发生面积呈增长趋势的贡献大小依次为：轻度（贡献率67.15%）>中度（贡献率20.56%）>重度（贡献率12.30%）；（4）对该趋势的贡献区域主要为西南地区（贡献率57.75%）与西北地区(贡献率42.25%)，其它地区贡献很小。同样地，导致森林病害轻度发生面积呈增长趋势的贡献区域也主要为西南地区（贡献率74.10%）与西北地区（贡献率25.9%），其它地区贡献很小。（5）2000-2010年，因森林病害导致的蓄积损失呈显著增长趋势，从2000年的294.486万m3增加到2010年的309.863万m3，增长5.2%。但直接经济价值损失、生态服务价值损失变化趋势不显著。研究结果表明，过去11年间全国森林病害发生面积增长趋势明显，尤其是西南区与西北区，尽管新增面积以轻度病害为主，但新增蓄积损失等不容忽视。
기우2000-2010년전국삼림병해발생면적、발생정도、전국삼림면적등수거，정량고산삼림직접경제손실여생태복무공능손실，분별채용다원선성회귀법、방차분석방법분석아국삼림병해발생면적、손실적특점여추세급아국삼림병해적주요발생구역，결과표명：（1）아국삼림병해발생면적종2000년적9.35×105 hm2증가도2010년적1.29×106 hm2，증장38.11%，상승추세현저。기중，경도발생면적상승추세현저，이중도여중도발생면적증장불명현；（2）2000-2010년간，서남구삼림병해발생면적상승추세현저，화북、화중、화남、서남、서북구경도발생급서남구중도발생면적상승추세현저；（3）도치삼림병해발생면적정증장추세적공헌대소의차위：경도（공헌솔67.15%）>중도（공헌솔20.56%）>중도（공헌솔12.30%）；（4）대해추세적공헌구역주요위서남지구（공헌솔57.75%）여서북지구(공헌솔42.25%)，기타지구공헌흔소。동양지，도치삼림병해경도발생면적정증장추세적공헌구역야주요위서남지구（공헌솔74.10%）여서북지구（공헌솔25.9%），기타지구공헌흔소。（5）2000-2010년，인삼림병해도치적축적손실정현저증장추세，종2000년적294.486만m3증가도2010년적309.863만m3，증장5.2%。단직접경제개치손실、생태복무개치손실변화추세불현저。연구결과표명，과거11년간전국삼림병해발생면적증장추세명현，우기시서남구여서북구，진관신증면적이경도병해위주，단신증축적손실등불용홀시。
In this study, we collected the data of forest diseases from 2000 to 2010, computed the loss of direct economy and ecological value, as well as analyzed the trend with multiple linear regression method and analyzed the regional difference with one-way ANONA. Results showed that (1) the total area of forest disease was increased by 38.11%, from 9.35×105 hm2 in 2000 to 1.29×106 hm2 in 2010, with an obvious up-trend during the past eleven years?(2) also, there is an obvious up-trend in the total area of forest disease in Southwest China as well as in the lightly-damaged areas by forest disease in North China, Central China, South China, Southwest China and Northwest China from 2000 to 2010?(3) the contribution for the increasing trend of forest disease area was the lightly-damaged area (with 67.15%)>the moderately-damaged area (with 20.56%)> severely-damaged area (with 12.30%), as well as (4) was the region of Southwest China (57.75%) and Northwest China (42.25%). And it was the same to the increasing trend of lightly-damaged areas, with 74.10% and 25.9% contribution in Southwest China and Northwest China respectively? (5) loss of forest stock volumes caused by diseases was increased from 2,944,860 m3 in 2000 to 3,098,630 m3 in 2010, increasing by 5.2% and showing an obvious up-trend. So results showed that both the range and area of forest diseases were enlarged in the past eleven years, especially the region of Southwest China and Northwest China, and the new loss of forest resources should be slowed down by taking some control measures.