水利信息化
水利信息化
수리신식화
WATER RESOURCES INFORMATIONZATION
2014年
3期
41-44
,共4页
AR模型%洪水预报%实时校正%宝珠寺水库
AR模型%洪水預報%實時校正%寶珠寺水庫
AR모형%홍수예보%실시교정%보주사수고
AR model%flood forecasting%real-time correction%Baozhusi Reservoir
人类活动改变了流域下垫面，对洪水预报精度产生极大的影响，引进实时校正模型以提高洪水预报精度。根据宝珠寺水库的自然地理和水文气象特性，宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报采用新安江模型，实时校正模型采用时间序列AR模型。利用10年历史降雨径流资料，对新安江和实时校正模型的参数进行率定，并利用近年的2次洪水对模型进行检验，检验结果表明实时校正能明显地提高洪水预报的精度。
人類活動改變瞭流域下墊麵，對洪水預報精度產生極大的影響，引進實時校正模型以提高洪水預報精度。根據寶珠寺水庫的自然地理和水文氣象特性，寶珠寺水庫實時洪水預報採用新安江模型，實時校正模型採用時間序列AR模型。利用10年歷史降雨徑流資料，對新安江和實時校正模型的參數進行率定，併利用近年的2次洪水對模型進行檢驗，檢驗結果錶明實時校正能明顯地提高洪水預報的精度。
인류활동개변료류역하점면，대홍수예보정도산생겁대적영향，인진실시교정모형이제고홍수예보정도。근거보주사수고적자연지리화수문기상특성，보주사수고실시홍수예보채용신안강모형，실시교정모형채용시간서렬AR모형。이용10년역사강우경류자료，대신안강화실시교정모형적삼수진행솔정，병이용근년적2차홍수대모형진행검험，검험결과표명실시교정능명현지제고홍수예보적정도。
The watershed underlying surface is changed by human activities and it influences the precision of flood forecasting, so the real-time correction model is introduced to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. According to natural geographical, meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Baozhusi Reservoir, Xinanjiang model is used as real-time flood forecast model and time series AR model is used as real-time correction model. Using historical rainfall runoff data of 10 years, the parameters of the Xinanjiang model and real-time correction model were calibrated. And the model is verified by the 2 floods in recent years. The inspection result shows that the real-time correction can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting obviously.
