CAJ | 학술논문

目的了解中国大陆438例人感染H7N9禽流感空间分布特征及发展趋势.方法建立438例人感染H7N9禽流感发病数据库(2013年2月至2014年5月),利用ArcGIS 10.0软件对疫情分布进行趋势及空间自相关分析,应用SPSS 16.0软件分析人口学特征.结果 2013年6月至2014年5月中国大陆人感染H7N9禽流感总体呈增长趋势,但上海地区病例明显减少;建立的趋势面分析显示其发病由北向南呈明显上升趋势,自西向东直线斜率有所减小.2013年2-5月省级水平和2013年6月至2014年5月市级水平的全局Moran'sI值分别为0.144 718、0.117 468(P＜0.05),差异有统计学意义.由局部Moran’sI和热点分析显示浙江省北部、广东省南部是人感染H7N9禽流感发病的主要高聚集区域(Z＞2.58).结论 2013年2月至2014年5月中国大陆地区人感染H7N9禽流感疫情表现为省级水平空间聚集性下降,但地市级水平的空间聚集性和局部热点数量有所增加,应根据空间分布相关特点,科学制定防控疫情传播的措施.
목적 료해중국대륙438례인감염H7N9금류감공간분포특정급발전추세.방법 건립438례인감염H7N9금류감발병수거고(2013년2월지2014년5월),이용ArcGIS 10.0연건대역정분포진행추세급공간자상관분석,응용SPSS 16.0연건분석인구학특정.결과 2013년6월지2014년5월중국대륙인감염H7N9금류감총체정증장추세,단상해지구병례명현감소;건립적추세면분석현시기발병유북향남정명현상승추세,자서향동직선사솔유소감소.2013년2-5월성급수평화2013년6월지2014년5월시급수평적전국Moran'sI치분별위0.144 718、0.117 468(P＜0.05),차이유통계학의의.유국부Moran’sI화열점분석현시절강성북부、광동성남부시인감염H7N9금류감발병적주요고취집구역(Z＞2.58).결론 2013년2월지2014년5월중국대륙지구인감염H7N9금류감역정표현위성급수평공간취집성하강,단지시급수평적공간취집성화국부열점수량유소증가,응근거공간분포상관특점,과학제정방공역정전파적조시.
Objective To investigate the spatial distribution and growing trend of 438 human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza virus in mainland China,and to provide evidence for developing scientific prevention and control strategies.Methods 438 human infection with the avian influenza A (H7N9) cases from February 2013 to May 2014 in mainland China were studied and data collected to establish a database for the development of geographic information system.Trend surface analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to study the spatial distribution.Descriptive epidemiological method was utilized to analyze the demographic characteristic.Results From June 2013 to May 2014,cases had an overall national increase,but significantly decreasing in Shanghai.A trend surface was established for human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) in the mainland of China,showing that the incidence was increasing obviously from north to south and the line slope declined from west to east.Distribution pattern of the cases varied within different time series and regional levels.The overall Moran' s I coefficient of the provincial level from February to May in 2013 and the coefficient of the city level from June 2013 to May 2014 were 0.144 718 and 0.117 468,respectively,with the differences statistically significant (P＜0.05).According to the analysis of the local autocorrelation and hot spot,northern Zhejiang and southern Guangdong showed high spatial clusters of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) (Z＞2.58).Conclusion From February 2013 to May 2014,the spatial correlation at the provincial level decreased.However,the spatial correlation and the numbers of hot spots at the city level were both increasing.Effective measures should be taken accordingly,following the distributive characteristics.