宝鸡文理学院学报(社会科学版)
寶鷄文理學院學報(社會科學版)
보계문이학원학보(사회과학판)
JOURNAL OF BAOJI COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCE(SOCIAL SCIENCES)
2014年
3期
79-83,102
,共6页
ARCH 模型%煤炭进口量%GARCH 模型
ARCH 模型%煤炭進口量%GARCH 模型
ARCH 모형%매탄진구량%GARCH 모형
ARCH model%Coal resources import%GARCH model
随着2012年国际经济持续下行,以及国外低价煤炭资源的进入,煤炭资源价格下跌,部分煤炭资源型城市经济低迷。本文对煤炭每月进口量建立 ARCH 模型分析,研究我国进口煤炭资源数量变化规律。研究认为增长趋势不会改变,并且从长远发展来看,我国煤炭进口量增长对建设我国经济可持续发展有利。
隨著2012年國際經濟持續下行,以及國外低價煤炭資源的進入,煤炭資源價格下跌,部分煤炭資源型城市經濟低迷。本文對煤炭每月進口量建立 ARCH 模型分析,研究我國進口煤炭資源數量變化規律。研究認為增長趨勢不會改變,併且從長遠髮展來看,我國煤炭進口量增長對建設我國經濟可持續髮展有利。
수착2012년국제경제지속하행,이급국외저개매탄자원적진입,매탄자원개격하질,부분매탄자원형성시경제저미。본문대매탄매월진구량건립 ARCH 모형분석,연구아국진구매탄자원수량변화규률。연구인위증장추세불회개변,병차종장원발전래간,아국매탄진구량증장대건설아국경제가지속발전유리。
With 2012 international and domestic economy continued downward,as well as the im-pact of foreign low cost coal resources,coal resources prices fall.Part of the coal resource-based cities are facing economic downturn.In this paper,we use ARCH model to analysis the coal imports, which aim to reveal the change rule of coal resources import quantity in our country.Studies suggest that growth trend will not change,and from a long term development perspective,China's coal im-ports growth would benefit the sustainable development of China economic.