CAJ | 학술논문

利用信江流域梅港水文控制站1953-2011年径流量观测资料和11个气象站同期气象观测资料，采用统计方法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法、Morlet小波分析法，对信江流域径流量年内、年际变化的不均匀性、长期趋势、周期变化，及其与气候因素的相关性等进行分析。结果显示，信江流域多年平均径流量呈缓慢增大趋势，但具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征，振荡周期明显，年际变化的主要周期为6-8 a，年代际变化的主要周期为准22 a，在20世纪70-90年代最明显。年流量以主汛期（4-6月）为最多，春、夏季（3-8月）径流变差系数小，水量稳定，冬季变差系数大，水量不稳定。流域径流量与气候因素中的降水、蒸发具有显著的相关性，而人类活动中的城镇化、经济、人口等因素对径流变化起到了一定的辅助作用。
이용신강류역매항수문공제참1953-2011년경류량관측자료화11개기상참동기기상관측자료，채용통계방법、Mann-Kendall비삼수검험방법、Morlet소파분석법，대신강류역경류량년내、년제변화적불균균성、장기추세、주기변화，급기여기후인소적상관성등진행분석。결과현시，신강류역다년평균경류량정완만증대추세，단구유현저적년제화년대제변화특정，진탕주기명현，년제변화적주요주기위6-8 a，년대제변화적주요주기위준22 a，재20세기70-90년대최명현。년류량이주신기（4-6월）위최다，춘、하계（3-8월）경류변차계수소，수량은정，동계변차계수대，수량불은정。류역경류량여기후인소중적강수、증발구유현저적상관성，이인류활동중적성진화、경제、인구등인소대경류변화기도료일정적보조작용。
In this paper, th e annual runoff variation and its climate impact factors were analyzed by using statistical analysis method, Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method based on the data of runoff volumes at Meigang hydrological station in Xinjiang basin during the period of 1953-2011. The results show that the annual runoff volumes present slightly increase trend with obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics, especially for the period of 1970-1990. The interannual cycle change is 6-8 years and the interdecadal cycle change is about 22 years. The maximal monthly runoff appeared in the main flood season(April-June). During spring and summer, variation of runoff shows a low coefficient with stable flow quantity while shows the opposite state in winter. Obvious correlation can be found between runoff volumes and climate factors. Moreover, economy, population and human activities in the urbanization played supporting roles in runoff changes.