气象与减灾研究
氣象與減災研究
기상여감재연구
METEOROLOGY AND DISASTER REDUCTION RESEARCH
2014年
1期
29-38
,共10页
郭达烽%包慧濛%郑劲光%吴静
郭達烽%包慧濛%鄭勁光%吳靜
곽체봉%포혜몽%정경광%오정
台风%路径%降水%雷达产品%物理量
檯風%路徑%降水%雷達產品%物理量
태풍%로경%강수%뢰체산품%물리량
typhoon%track%precipitation%diagnosis
利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、常规气象观测资料、数值模式预报资料、多普勒天气雷达产品等，针对台风“潭美”（2013）登陆后影响江西的移动路径变化和强降水过程，从大尺度环流背景、物理量场等方面进行了诊断分析。结果表明：1）台风的移动路径与副高变化有关，由于受副高南缘的偏东南气流影响，其中心向西北偏西方向移动，进入江西后受副高阻挡逐渐转为偏西和西南偏西方向，因此强大的副高是影响“潭美”移动路径变化的重要系统。2）“潭美”登陆后，中心附近的风速分布表现出明显的不对称结构。随着其向偏西方向移动，大风速区呈逆时针旋转。这种风场结构中不对称的强风速区转移影响了台风的移动路径，使向西北方向的移动逐渐转为西行和西南行。东西风分量差与台风移动路径的变化之间具有很好的对应关系。3）多普勒雷达产品1h降水量（OHP）与雷达反射率以及大气空中垂直液态含水量（VIL）具有很好的对应关系，与实际降水落区具有较好的对应关系，但其量值要比实际降水量明显偏小，平均在50％左右。4）水汽通量辐合越强，暴雨越强。强降水的产生与来自西南方向的水汽输送带密切相关。江西省中部大范围上升运动的出现和发展，为强降水的产生提供了动力机制；低层辐合、高层辐散的存在是此次台风强降水发生发展的重要因素之一。
利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析資料、常規氣象觀測資料、數值模式預報資料、多普勒天氣雷達產品等，針對檯風“潭美”（2013）登陸後影響江西的移動路徑變化和彊降水過程，從大呎度環流揹景、物理量場等方麵進行瞭診斷分析。結果錶明：1）檯風的移動路徑與副高變化有關，由于受副高南緣的偏東南氣流影響，其中心嚮西北偏西方嚮移動，進入江西後受副高阻擋逐漸轉為偏西和西南偏西方嚮，因此彊大的副高是影響“潭美”移動路徑變化的重要繫統。2）“潭美”登陸後，中心附近的風速分佈錶現齣明顯的不對稱結構。隨著其嚮偏西方嚮移動，大風速區呈逆時針鏇轉。這種風場結構中不對稱的彊風速區轉移影響瞭檯風的移動路徑，使嚮西北方嚮的移動逐漸轉為西行和西南行。東西風分量差與檯風移動路徑的變化之間具有很好的對應關繫。3）多普勒雷達產品1h降水量（OHP）與雷達反射率以及大氣空中垂直液態含水量（VIL）具有很好的對應關繫，與實際降水落區具有較好的對應關繫，但其量值要比實際降水量明顯偏小，平均在50％左右。4）水汽通量輻閤越彊，暴雨越彊。彊降水的產生與來自西南方嚮的水汽輸送帶密切相關。江西省中部大範圍上升運動的齣現和髮展，為彊降水的產生提供瞭動力機製；低層輻閤、高層輻散的存在是此次檯風彊降水髮生髮展的重要因素之一。
이용NCEP 1°×1°재분석자료、상규기상관측자료、수치모식예보자료、다보륵천기뢰체산품등，침대태풍“담미”（2013）등륙후영향강서적이동로경변화화강강수과정，종대척도배류배경、물리량장등방면진행료진단분석。결과표명：1）태풍적이동로경여부고변화유관，유우수부고남연적편동남기류영향，기중심향서북편서방향이동，진입강서후수부고조당축점전위편서화서남편서방향，인차강대적부고시영향“담미”이동로경변화적중요계통。2）“담미”등륙후，중심부근적풍속분포표현출명현적불대칭결구。수착기향편서방향이동，대풍속구정역시침선전。저충풍장결구중불대칭적강풍속구전이영향료태풍적이동로경，사향서북방향적이동축점전위서행화서남행。동서풍분량차여태풍이동로경적변화지간구유흔호적대응관계。3）다보륵뢰체산품1h강수량（OHP）여뢰체반사솔이급대기공중수직액태함수량（VIL）구유흔호적대응관계，여실제강수락구구유교호적대응관계，단기량치요비실제강수량명현편소，평균재50％좌우。4）수기통량복합월강，폭우월강。강강수적산생여래자서남방향적수기수송대밀절상관。강서성중부대범위상승운동적출현화발전，위강강수적산생제공료동력궤제；저층복합、고층복산적존재시차차태풍강강수발생발전적중요인소지일。
Based on con ventionally detected data, NCEP reanalysis data, numerical weather prediction model data and Doppler radar data, the track and precipitation of strong typhoon “Trami” after landfall were diagnostically analyzed on the large scale circulation background, the physical characteristics, and so on. The results are as follows: The typhoon movement was related with the evolvement of subtropical high. The typhoon center moved toward the west-northwest during the first 13 hours after“Trami”landing due to the influence of southeasterly wind on the south side of the subtropical high. The movement direction increasingly transformed toward the west and west-southwest after entering Jiangxi province due to the impact of subtropical high. By analyzing the wind speed near the center of “Trami”, it presented apparently asymmetric structure. Along with its moving westward, the maximum wind speed area presented counterclockwise and the easterly wind speed exceeded westerly wind speed which caused it's direction from northwest to west and southwest gradually. The Doppler radar product OHP (one hour precipitation) had well correlation with both R and VIL (vertical integrated liquid water). Also the OHP in Nanchang was consistent with actual precipitation area, although it was about 50% less than the actual rainfall. Storm intensity could be reflected by moisture flux divergence, larger moisture flux divergence means stronger storm. Heavy rainfall was closely related to the transportation of southwestern moisture transportation. The upward motion in most part of central Jiangxi province offered dynamic mechanism to heavy rainfall, lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence were important factors for heavy rainfall occurrence.
