CAJ | 학술논문

应用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法，根据由1970-2012年NCEP/NCAR逐日海平面气压场计算得到的环流指数，对淮河流域的环流进行分型。分析了冬季主要环流型和气温的分布特征及两者的联系，并以环流指数和主要环流型为预测因子，结合经验正交函数分解（EOF）方法和逐步回归方法，建立了淮河流域冬季气温距平的预测模型。结果表明，淮河流域冬季的主要环流型是东北风型、东风型、反气旋环流型以及东北风、东风配合下的反气旋性环流型，划分的环流型符合实际情况，这些环流型具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征。通过对预测模型进行后报试验和独立预报试验，表明该模型具有一定的预报技巧。
응용Lamb-Jenkinson대기배류분형방법，근거유1970-2012년NCEP/NCAR축일해평면기압장계산득도적배류지수，대회하류역적배류진행분형。분석료동계주요배류형화기온적분포특정급량자적련계，병이배류지수화주요배류형위예측인자，결합경험정교함수분해（EOF）방법화축보회귀방법，건립료회하류역동계기온거평적예측모형。결과표명，회하류역동계적주요배류형시동북풍형、동풍형、반기선배류형이급동북풍、동풍배합하적반기선성배류형，화분적배류형부합실제정황，저사배류형구유현저적년제화년대제변화특정。통과대예측모형진행후보시험화독립예보시험，표명해모형구유일정적예보기교。
Using of Lamb-Jenkinson atmo spheric circulation typing method and daily sea level pressure data from NCEP/NCAR , six circulation indices were calculated to analyze the circulation catalogue over Huaihe valley. And the circulation indices and dominant atmospheric circulation patterns were introduced to construct the winter temperature anomaly prediction model as predictors by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method and the Stepwise multiple regression method over Huaihe valley. The results show that main circulation catalogues impacting on climate of Huaihe valley are northeasterly type, easterly type, anticyclone type, anticyclone northeasterly type and anticyclone easterly type, respectively. These circulation types present obvious interannual and interdecadal characteristics. According to the results of hindcasts and independence prediction experiments, it indicates that the forecast model presents a certain degree of forecast skill.