CAJ | 학술논문

在总结地极移动（以下简称极移）和径流之间可能存在的相互作用机制的基础上，利用受人类活动影响较少的青藏高原雅鲁藏布江的月径流资料和极移资料以及格兰杰因果关系检验方法，从统计学角度探索了在月、季和年尺度上，极移变化与径流变化之间可能存在的联系。结果显示，在月尺度上，极移X分量变化量在滞后1～8个月和10～21个月后是径流变化量的格兰杰原因；极移Y分量变化量在滞后1～9个月和17～24个月后是径流变化量的格兰杰原因。在季尺度上，极移X分量变化量只有在滞后2个季的情况下是径流变化量的格兰杰原因；而极移Y分量变化量在滞后4～6个季的情况下是径流变化量的格兰杰原因。在年尺度上，未检测出格兰杰因果关系。从径流到极移的检测中发现，月尺度上，径流变化量在滞后3～25个月后为极移X分量变化量的格兰杰原因；径流变化量在滞后1个月和3～25个月后为极移Y分量变化量的格兰杰原因。在季尺度上，径流变化量在滞后2～8个季的情况下是极移X分量变化量的格兰杰原因；径流变化量在滞后1～8个季后是极移Y分量变化量的格兰杰原因。在年尺度上，未发现径流变化量和极移变化量存在格兰杰因果关系。在月、季和年尺度上，极移变化量和径流变化量的不同格兰杰因果关系表明，利用极移资料可能在月和季尺度上提高资料稀缺区域的水文预测精度。
재총결지겁이동（이하간칭겁이）화경류지간가능존재적상호작용궤제적기출상，이용수인류활동영향교소적청장고원아로장포강적월경류자료화겁이자료이급격란걸인과관계검험방법，종통계학각도탐색료재월、계화년척도상，겁이변화여경류변화지간가능존재적련계。결과현시，재월척도상，겁이X분량변화량재체후1～8개월화10～21개월후시경류변화량적격란걸원인；겁이Y분량변화량재체후1～9개월화17～24개월후시경류변화량적격란걸원인。재계척도상，겁이X분량변화량지유재체후2개계적정황하시경류변화량적격란걸원인；이겁이Y분량변화량재체후4～6개계적정황하시경류변화량적격란걸원인。재년척도상，미검측출격란걸인과관계。종경류도겁이적검측중발현，월척도상，경류변화량재체후3～25개월후위겁이X분량변화량적격란걸원인；경류변화량재체후1개월화3～25개월후위겁이Y분량변화량적격란걸원인。재계척도상，경류변화량재체후2～8개계적정황하시겁이X분량변화량적격란걸원인；경류변화량재체후1～8개계후시겁이Y분량변화량적격란걸원인。재년척도상，미발현경류변화량화겁이변화량존재격란걸인과관계。재월、계화년척도상，겁이변화량화경류변화량적불동격란걸인과관계표명，이용겁이자료가능재월화계척도상제고자료희결구역적수문예측정도。
The evidence of the relationship between polar motion and runoff is reviewed. The relationship between the runoff of Yarlung Zangbo, a primitive river in Tibet, China and polar motion with data records from about 1846 to present is explored. First, the action path framework was structured based on geophysical principles. In order to make time series stationary, the initial time series of polar motion X component, Y component and runoff were transformed into their corresponding ifrst order difference time seriesΔX,ΔY, andΔQ. The Granger causality test betweenΔX,ΔY andΔQ was conducted on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It is found that on a monthly scaleΔX inlfuencesΔQ at the lag being from the 1st to the 21st month, with the 9th month being an exception.ΔY inlfuencesΔQ at the lag from the 1st to the 9th month and from the 17th to the 24th month. On a seasonal scale, the inlfuence ofΔX onΔQ can be seen in the 2nd season (i.e. from the 4th to the 6th month). The inlfuence ofΔY onΔQ can be seen on a seasonal scale from the 4th to the 6th season (i.e. from the 10th to 18th month). We cannot see evident Granger causality fromΔX,ΔY toΔQ, on annual scales. For the Granger inlfuence ofΔQ toΔX,ΔY, it is found that on a monthly scale the inlfuences are prominent at the lag being from the 3rd to the 25th months for theΔX, for theΔY it is the 1st and the 3rd to the 25th months. On a seasonal scale these inlfuences can be seen at the lag from the 2nd to the 8th season (corresponding to the 4th to the 24th month) forΔX and at the lag from the 1st to the 8th season (corresponding to from the 1st to the 24th month) forΔY. Again, on a annual scale no evident granger causality can be found from runoff to polar motion. The different behaviours on monthly, seasonal and annual scales suggest that using the monthly data of polar motion to obtain the monthly runoff data is more practicable than borrowing the data from polar motion for river runoff on seasonal and annual scales.