CAJ | 학술논문

为保障江西省化工企业的人员健康及财产安全，保证安全监管工作科学有效的进行，文章运用黄金分割法及灰色关联分析法对全省范围内的危险化学品重大危险源及事故数据进行分析研究，并采用布朗三次指数平滑法对2014年全省安全生产事故死亡人数进行预测。研究结果表明：江西省危险化学品重大危险源等级主要为三级和四级；九江、宜春和上饶3个地区是重点监管区域；股份有限公司、有限责任公司和私营经济三大经济类型的危险化学品企业是安全监管的主要对象；爆炸、中毒窒息和机械伤害事故是事故预防与应急救援的重点；预测2014年全省危险化学品事故死亡2～6人。
위보장강서성화공기업적인원건강급재산안전，보증안전감관공작과학유효적진행，문장운용황금분할법급회색관련분석법대전성범위내적위험화학품중대위험원급사고수거진행분석연구，병채용포랑삼차지수평활법대2014년전성안전생산사고사망인수진행예측。연구결과표명：강서성위험화학품중대위험원등급주요위삼급화사급；구강、의춘화상요3개지구시중점감관구역；고빈유한공사、유한책임공사화사영경제삼대경제류형적위험화학품기업시안전감관적주요대상；폭작、중독질식화궤계상해사고시사고예방여응급구원적중점；예측2014년전성위험화학품사고사망2～6인。
In order to protect workers ’ health and safety in chemical industry, ensure the scientific and effective work of safety supervision, golden section method and grey relation method are used to analyze major hazard installations and accidents by dangerous chemicals in Jiangxi province. Brown three exponential smoothing method is used to predict the death toll of production safety in the province in 2014.The results show that the mainly hazard levels are III and IV; and the key regulatory areas are Jiujiang, Yichun, and Shangrao; the important objects of safety supervision are incorporated companies, limited liability companies and private economies;the focuses of accident prevention and emergency rescue are explosion, poisoning choke and mechanical injury;the provincial death toll in the dangerous chemical accidents will be 2 to 6 this year.