CAJ | 학술논문

本文在 Takens 定理基础上，从我国制造业增加值占 GDP 的比重入手，将微分进化算法和支持向量机有效集成起来，集成联立模型汲取了各方法的优势之处，运用基于微分进化算法的支持向量机模型对我国制造业增加值和制造业增加值占 GDP 的比重进行预测，集成联立方法有效避免了以往制造业预测研究中多维空间无法计算和参数的选取问题，研究结果表明，我国制造业增加值逐年增加的趋势还将延续，而制造业增加值占 GDP 的比重在未来十年内将达到上限值。
본문재 Takens 정리기출상，종아국제조업증가치점 GDP 적비중입수，장미분진화산법화지지향량궤유효집성기래，집성련립모형급취료각방법적우세지처，운용기우미분진화산법적지지향량궤모형대아국제조업증가치화제조업증가치점 GDP 적비중진행예측，집성련립방법유효피면료이왕제조업예측연구중다유공간무법계산화삼수적선취문제，연구결과표명，아국제조업증가치축년증가적추세환장연속，이제조업증가치점 GDP 적비중재미래십년내장체도상한치。
Based on the theory of Takens ,in view of the Chinese manufacturing value added accounted for the proportion of GDP , this piece of paper marries together the differential evolution algorithm and support vector machine effectively .This combination integrates model draws the advantage and uses the differential evolution algorithm support vector machine model of China’s manufacturing industry , and the manufacturing value added accounted for the proportion of GDP was predicted based on integration .Simultaneous method can effec-tively avoid the problem of selecting the multidimensional space which cannot be calculated and the parameters of the manufacturing of pre -diction .Results showed that China’s manufacturing industry increased the value of an increasing trend which will continue ,but the manu-facturing value added accounted for the proportion of GDP will reach the upper limit value in the next ten years .