计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2014年
13期
257-261
,共5页
综合预测模型%权系数%油田勘探开发%投资规模%预测系统
綜閤預測模型%權繫數%油田勘探開髮%投資規模%預測繫統
종합예측모형%권계수%유전감탐개발%투자규모%예측계통
integrated forecasting model%weight coefficient%oilfield exploration and development%investment scale%prediction system
为了避免传统组合预测方法人工赋权的主观性与简单组合难以推广的弊端，进一步提高预测精度与自动化，提出了N 种单一预测模型的综合预测模型，并且给出该模型权系数的科学的数学计算步骤。以某油田勘探开发投资规模预测为实例加以验证，结果表明综合预测模型的预测精度较单一模型有明显提高，达到了预测模型精度提高与模型易于推广的目的；建立了该实例的投资规模预测系统，实现了预测与系统的结合，保证预测的高效性。
為瞭避免傳統組閤預測方法人工賦權的主觀性與簡單組閤難以推廣的弊耑，進一步提高預測精度與自動化，提齣瞭N 種單一預測模型的綜閤預測模型，併且給齣該模型權繫數的科學的數學計算步驟。以某油田勘探開髮投資規模預測為實例加以驗證，結果錶明綜閤預測模型的預測精度較單一模型有明顯提高，達到瞭預測模型精度提高與模型易于推廣的目的；建立瞭該實例的投資規模預測繫統，實現瞭預測與繫統的結閤，保證預測的高效性。
위료피면전통조합예측방법인공부권적주관성여간단조합난이추엄적폐단，진일보제고예측정도여자동화，제출료N 충단일예측모형적종합예측모형，병차급출해모형권계수적과학적수학계산보취。이모유전감탐개발투자규모예측위실례가이험증，결과표명종합예측모형적예측정도교단일모형유명현제고，체도료예측모형정도제고여모형역우추엄적목적；건립료해실례적투자규모예측계통，실현료예측여계통적결합，보증예측적고효성。
In order to avoid the traditional combination forecast method which weights are set by artificial with their subjec-tivities, and to avoid the hardness of popularizing, to further improve the prediction precision and automation, this paper puts forward a comprehensive forecasting model which is combined of single N prediction models, and gives the weight coefficient scientific mathematical calculation steps. To take that predicting the investment of oilfield exploration and development as an example, the results show that the prediction precision of integrated forecast is obvious increased than other single model, and achieves the aims of improving the accuracy and generalizing easily. Finally it builds the investment scale prediction system of this instance, realizes the combination prediction with the development system in order to ensure that prediction of high efficiency.
