CAJ | 학술논문

基于Nerlove模型，利用动态面板GM M方法对鸡蛋供给反应进行了研究。结果表明：中国鸡蛋供给的短期和长期价格均缺乏弹性，养殖户对鸡蛋价格变化反应迟钝；养殖户生产决策存在约1．86年的时滞期，并且疫情对鸡蛋产量具有显著的负作用；规模化养殖相对于非规模化养殖，短期和长期价格供给弹性都要大的多，并且加大生产投入能带来更多的产量增长，但是规模化养殖和非规模化养殖在生产决策时滞上相差不大，并且规模化养殖疫情冲击的负向作用要大于非规模化养殖。
기우Nerlove모형，이용동태면판GM M방법대계단공급반응진행료연구。결과표명：중국계단공급적단기화장기개격균결핍탄성，양식호대계단개격변화반응지둔；양식호생산결책존재약1．86년적시체기，병차역정대계단산량구유현저적부작용；규모화양식상대우비규모화양식，단기화장기개격공급탄성도요대적다，병차가대생산투입능대래경다적산량증장，단시규모화양식화비규모화양식재생산결책시체상상차불대，병차규모화양식역정충격적부향작용요대우비규모화양식。
This paper empirically studies the supply response of eggs in china with the Nerlove model by using dynamic panel GMM way .It is concluded that the short-term and long-term price elasticity of egg supply in china are lack of flexibility ,so farmers are slow in response to egg price signal .Meanwhile , there is a lag period of about 1 .86 years of farmers'production decisions ,and the avian influenza ,the representative of epidemic ,has a remarkable negative effect on egg production .Besides ,compared with non-scale farming ,the large-scale farming has bigger short-term and long-term price elasticity ,and also can bring more output growth by increasing more production inputs .However ,there are no significant differences between large-scale farming and non-scale farming on production decision ,and the epidemic has a bigger negative effect on large-scale farming than non-scale farming .