统计与信息论坛
統計與信息論罈
통계여신식론단
STATISTICS & INFORMATION TRIBUNE
2014年
7期
47-53
,共7页
“县改区”%经济增长%合成控制法
“縣改區”%經濟增長%閤成控製法
“현개구”%경제증장%합성공제법
turning county into district reform%economic grow th%synthetic control methods
“县改区”既可能是城市化进程中进行区域整合、优化资源配置的必然选择，也可能是省级政府与地市级政府财政人事权博弈的结果。以江苏省2004年盐都县行政区划变革为个案，用合成控制法估计了“县改区”对区域经济增长的影响，研究结果显示：盐都撤县设区改革加速了盐都的经济增长，但这一增长绩效并不显著，行政区划改革未能使盐都领跑江苏，甚至不能领跑苏北。
“縣改區”既可能是城市化進程中進行區域整閤、優化資源配置的必然選擇，也可能是省級政府與地市級政府財政人事權博弈的結果。以江囌省2004年鹽都縣行政區劃變革為箇案，用閤成控製法估計瞭“縣改區”對區域經濟增長的影響，研究結果顯示：鹽都撤縣設區改革加速瞭鹽都的經濟增長，但這一增長績效併不顯著，行政區劃改革未能使鹽都領跑江囌，甚至不能領跑囌北。
“현개구”기가능시성시화진정중진행구역정합、우화자원배치적필연선택，야가능시성급정부여지시급정부재정인사권박혁적결과。이강소성2004년염도현행정구화변혁위개안，용합성공제법고계료“현개구”대구역경제증장적영향，연구결과현시：염도철현설구개혁가속료염도적경제증장，단저일증장적효병불현저，행정구화개혁미능사염도령포강소，심지불능령포소북。
The organization of local government plays an important role in the regional economic growth .Turning county into district reform in recent years in China is not only the inevitable choice of optimizing resource allocation , but also the outcome of fiscal competition of provincial government and prefecture-level cities . Using the synthetic control method and taking the administrative division adjustment of YanDu in 2004 as the sample case , this paper does not empirically confirm the reform's significant impact on regional economic grow th though this adjustment promote YanDu 's economic development .Therefore ,the injunction that urbanization will continue to be powerful engines for China's economic development is worthy of serious consideration .
