CAJ | 학술논문

电网运行维护费是输配电成本的重要组成部分，为了科学测算输配电价格，需要准确合理的成本数据。但国内各省级电网运行维护费之间差异较大，难以按统一标准或分类标准来判定其合理性。文中基于回归分析理论，提出一种评估电网运行维护费合理性的方法。首先进行电网运行维护费的影响因素分析，筛选出主要影响因素；其次提取主成分消除各影响因素之间的多重相关性；然后对电网运行维护费与主成分进行回归分析，得到省级电网运行维护费的统计规律；最后利用肖维勒准则来评估电网企业上报的运行维护费数据的合理性。以27个省级电网企业的实际数据进行算例分析，结果表明该方法有效可行。
전망운행유호비시수배전성본적중요조성부분，위료과학측산수배전개격，수요준학합리적성본수거。단국내각성급전망운행유호비지간차이교대，난이안통일표준혹분류표준래판정기합이성。문중기우회귀분석이론，제출일충평고전망운행유호비합이성적방법。수선진행전망운행유호비적영향인소분석，사선출주요영향인소；기차제취주성분소제각영향인소지간적다중상관성；연후대전망운행유호비여주성분진행회귀분석，득도성급전망운행유호비적통계규률；최후이용초유륵준칙래평고전망기업상보적운행유호비수거적합이성。이27개성급전망기업적실제수거진행산례분석，결과표명해방법유효가행。
Power grid operation and maintenance costs form important part of power transmission and distribution costs. Accurate and rational cost data are needed in order to calculate the price scientifically. However, there are significant differences from province to province in the operation and maintenance costs.It is difficult to determine their rationality by making a unified standard or classification standard.This paper studies the rationality evaluation based on the theory of statistical regression analysis.The main influence factors are firstly filtered by analyzing the influence factors.Secondly,the principal components are extracted from the main factors to eliminate the multiple correlations.Then statistical regularity of power grid operation and maintenance costs is obtained after regression analysis.Finally,the Chauvenel criteria are used to evaluate the corresponding rationality.Through the case studies with the actual data of 27 provincial grid enterprises,the results show that the method is effective and feasible.