CAJ | 학술논문

大规模风电场并网后其出力的不确定性增加了系统运营方在制定旋转备用计划时平衡成本与风险之间的难度。为应对这种挑战，首先在考虑风速预测误差、风速实时波动和风电机组故障的情况下对风电功率的随机性进行了分析；然后，建立了以考虑旋转备用容量成本和停电损失的旋转备用成本期望值和条件风险价值为目标的多目标优化模型，并采用多目标免疫优化算法和蒙特卡洛场景模拟法求出旋转备用成本期望和条件风险价值的最优前沿集；最后，采用模糊决策理论确定最终的旋转备用计划。算例结果表明该多目标模型可以有效地求出旋转备用成本期望和条件风险价值的前沿集；模糊风险决策模型比普通风险决策模型扩大了风险容忍系数的有效区间，更能反映风险态度；而考虑条件风险价值的旋转备用优化模型在风险规避方面比仅考虑成本期望的模型更具优势，可以作为旋转备用计划决策者的风险管理工具。
대규모풍전장병망후기출력적불학정성증가료계통운영방재제정선전비용계화시평형성본여풍험지간적난도。위응대저충도전，수선재고필풍속예측오차、풍속실시파동화풍전궤조고장적정황하대풍전공솔적수궤성진행료분석；연후，건립료이고필선전비용용량성본화정전손실적선전비용성본기망치화조건풍험개치위목표적다목표우화모형，병채용다목표면역우화산법화몽특잡락장경모의법구출선전비용성본기망화조건풍험개치적최우전연집；최후，채용모호결책이론학정최종적선전비용계화。산례결과표명해다목표모형가이유효지구출선전비용성본기망화조건풍험개치적전연집；모호풍험결책모형비보통풍험결책모형확대료풍험용인계수적유효구간，경능반영풍험태도；이고필조건풍험개치적선전비용우화모형재풍험규피방면비부고필성본기망적모형경구우세，가이작위선전비용계화결책자적풍험관리공구。
The uncertainties of wind energy after the grid-connection of large-scale wind farms increase the difficulty in balancing cost and risk during the making of spinning reserve plans.To meet this challenge,first the randomness of wind power is analyzed by taking forecasting errors and real-time fluctuations of wind speeds and wind turbine faults into consideration.Then a multi-obj ective optimization model is developed with the spinning reserve cost expectation(spinning reserve capacity costs and outage costs considered) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) taken into account.The optimal front set of spinning reserve cost expectation and CVaR are obtained by the multi-obj ective immune optimization algorithm and the Monte Carlo scenario simulation.Finally,the spinning reserve plan is firmed up based on the fuzzy decision-making theory.The example shows that this multi-obj ective model is able to effectively find out the front set of cost expectations of spinning reserve and CVaR. Compared with the traditional model,the fuzzy risk decision-making model has expanded the effective range of the risk tolerance coefficient,while better reflecting the risk attitudes.The model considering CVaR has more advantages than that merely considering the cost expectation in terms of risk shunning,and it can be a risk management tool for decision-makers.