CAJ | 학술논문

由于风电具有很强的随机性和波动性，因此大规模风电并网会对电力系统的运行和稳定性造成很大的影响。如何准确预测区域风电场的功率已经成为当今电力系统亟待解决的研究课题。现有的风电功率预测方法未考虑空间相关因素，预测体系有待进一步完善。基于空间相关性的风电功率预测是一种考虑了本地信息和空间相关信息的综合预测方法。文中给出了基于空间相关性的风电功率预测的定义、概念和基本特点，分别从统计模型、物理模型、空间降尺度过程和空间升尺度过程4个方面详细阐述了基于空间相关性的风电功率预测的实现方法，并对空间相关性在风电功率预测方面应用的最新国内外研究进展作了系统的分析评述。最后，针对该领域尚存在的问题与不足，总结了今后的发展方向和需要进一步探索的研究内容。
유우풍전구유흔강적수궤성화파동성，인차대규모풍전병망회대전력계통적운행화은정성조성흔대적영향。여하준학예측구역풍전장적공솔이경성위당금전력계통극대해결적연구과제。현유적풍전공솔예측방법미고필공간상관인소，예측체계유대진일보완선。기우공간상관성적풍전공솔예측시일충고필료본지신식화공간상관신식적종합예측방법。문중급출료기우공간상관성적풍전공솔예측적정의、개념화기본특점，분별종통계모형、물리모형、공간강척도과정화공간승척도과정4개방면상세천술료기우공간상관성적풍전공솔예측적실현방법，병대공간상관성재풍전공솔예측방면응용적최신국내외연구진전작료계통적분석평술。최후，침대해영역상존재적문제여불족，총결료금후적발전방향화수요진일보탐색적연구내용。
Large-scale integration of wind power into grid has significant impact on system operation and stability due to the inherent intermittency of wind power.Consequently,accurate prediction of regional wind farm output has become one of the vital challenges for the power industry.However,most of the existing prediction methods only involve mathematical models and rarely consider spatial correlation factors.As such,the prediction system remains to be further improved.Wind power prediction based on spatial correlation is a comprehensive prediction method that combines both local information and spatially correlated information.This paper introduces the definition,concepts and basic characteristics of the wind power prediction based on spatial correlation.Specific aspects such as statistical model,physical model,down-scaling and up-scaling procedure in terms of wind power prediction based on spatial correlation are also explained in detail.The state-of-the-art of spatial correlation approaches and techniques used in wind power prediction around the world are systematically reviewed and summarized.Finally,the future development trend and further investigations are presented for the existing problems and shortcomings in this field. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.5 1077126,No.5 1 1 74290).