东南大学学报（自然科学版）
東南大學學報（自然科學版）
동남대학학보（자연과학판）
JOURNAL OF SOUTHEAST UNIVERSITY
2014年
5期
935-940
,共6页
吴洪亮%李晓红%朱成丽%窦洪
吳洪亮%李曉紅%硃成麗%竇洪
오홍량%리효홍%주성려%두홍
风险评估%破损程度%张力%电流%环境温度%散热系数
風險評估%破損程度%張力%電流%環境溫度%散熱繫數
풍험평고%파손정도%장력%전류%배경온도%산열계수
risk assessment%breakage degree%tensile force%current%ambient temperature%heat transfer coefficient
为了实现高压输电自由导线基于风险指引的检修，根据机械结构可靠性理论，建立了铝股局部破损导线断裂的风险评估模型；基于该模型，定量评估了破损程度、导线张力、电流负荷、环境温度、散热系数和时间等因素对断线风险概率的影响；并由风险概率分级区间反演计算出了各因素的分级预警区间．研究结果表明：各因素条件下的断线风险概率均与时间成半抛物线形关系，风险概率骤增所对应的阈值分别为导线破损达13．23％以上、张力大于30％极限拉断力、电流负荷大于500 A、环境温度大于35℃以及散热系数小于20 W/（m2·K）．各风险因素的重要度排序为破损程度、导线张力、电流负荷、环境温度、散热系数．破损程度、导线张力存在Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ，Ⅳ级预警区间，电流负荷存在Ⅰ，Ⅱ级预警区间，而常规条件的环境温度和散热系数一般只存在Ⅰ级预警区间．所建立的定量风险评估模型及分级方法可为输电导线运行安全管理提供参考．
為瞭實現高壓輸電自由導線基于風險指引的檢脩，根據機械結構可靠性理論，建立瞭鋁股跼部破損導線斷裂的風險評估模型；基于該模型，定量評估瞭破損程度、導線張力、電流負荷、環境溫度、散熱繫數和時間等因素對斷線風險概率的影響；併由風險概率分級區間反縯計算齣瞭各因素的分級預警區間．研究結果錶明：各因素條件下的斷線風險概率均與時間成半拋物線形關繫，風險概率驟增所對應的閾值分彆為導線破損達13．23％以上、張力大于30％極限拉斷力、電流負荷大于500 A、環境溫度大于35℃以及散熱繫數小于20 W/（m2·K）．各風險因素的重要度排序為破損程度、導線張力、電流負荷、環境溫度、散熱繫數．破損程度、導線張力存在Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ，Ⅳ級預警區間，電流負荷存在Ⅰ，Ⅱ級預警區間，而常規條件的環境溫度和散熱繫數一般隻存在Ⅰ級預警區間．所建立的定量風險評估模型及分級方法可為輸電導線運行安全管理提供參攷．
위료실현고압수전자유도선기우풍험지인적검수，근거궤계결구가고성이론，건립료려고국부파손도선단렬적풍험평고모형；기우해모형，정량평고료파손정도、도선장력、전류부하、배경온도、산열계수화시간등인소대단선풍험개솔적영향；병유풍험개솔분급구간반연계산출료각인소적분급예경구간．연구결과표명：각인소조건하적단선풍험개솔균여시간성반포물선형관계，풍험개솔취증소대응적역치분별위도선파손체13．23％이상、장력대우30％겁한랍단력、전류부하대우500 A、배경온도대우35℃이급산열계수소우20 W/（m2·K）．각풍험인소적중요도배서위파손정도、도선장력、전류부하、배경온도、산열계수．파손정도、도선장력존재Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ，Ⅳ급예경구간，전류부하존재Ⅰ，Ⅱ급예경구간，이상규조건적배경온도화산열계수일반지존재Ⅰ급예경구간．소건립적정량풍험평고모형급분급방법가위수전도선운행안전관리제공삼고．
The risk-based maintenance of high-voltage conductors was implemented by establishing the risk assessment model from aluminum strands'localized breakage to conductors'fracture accord-ing to the mechanical structure reliability theory.Quantitative relationships between fracture risk probabilities and breakage degree,tensile force,current,ambient temperature,heat transfer coeffi-cient and duration time were assessed respectively based on this model.And the graded warning in-tervals of these risk factors were calculated according to the risk probability ranking intervals.The results show that the conductors'fracture risk probabilities increase with time in a half parabolic man-ner.And the threshold values corresponding to the risk probabilities are over 1 3 .23% for breakage degree,30% ultimate tensile strength for tensile force,500 A for current,35 ℃for ambient temper-ature,and below 20 W/(m2 ·K)for heat transfer coefficient.The importance ranking of these risk factors is as followbreakage degree,tensile force,current,ambient temperature,and heat transfer coefficient.There are level Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ warning interval in both breakage degree and tensile force,and level Ⅰ,Ⅱ warning interval in current.While in conventional environment,there are only level Ⅰ warning intervals in ambient temperature and heat transfer coefficient.The established quantitative risk assessment model and ranking method can provide reference for the operation safety management of transmission line conductors.
