CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规气象观测资料、 NCEP每6h1次2.5°×2.5°全球再分析资料以及国家气候中心统计产品，分析了1988年12月30-31日（简称过程1）和2013年12月15-16日（简称过程2）梅州市2次大范围冬季暴雨过程，为冬季暴雨的预报提供参考。结果表明，两次冬季暴雨过程都是发生在孟湾偏强南支槽东移过程中，梅州地区处于高空急流右侧的强辐散区和低层强低值系统边缘的风速辐合区，暴雨落区大体上沿副高西北侧边缘分布。赤道中东太平洋海域海温距平是否正常，是否出现典型的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件或者处于中性状态，对梅州地区冬季暴雨过程的发生没有直接关系。
이용상규기상관측자료、 NCEP매6h1차2.5°×2.5°전구재분석자료이급국가기후중심통계산품，분석료1988년12월30-31일（간칭과정1）화2013년12월15-16일（간칭과정2）매주시2차대범위동계폭우과정，위동계폭우적예보제공삼고。결과표명，량차동계폭우과정도시발생재맹만편강남지조동이과정중，매주지구처우고공급류우측적강복산구화저층강저치계통변연적풍속복합구，폭우락구대체상연부고서북측변연분포。적도중동태평양해역해온거평시부정상，시부출현전형적액이니낙/랍니나사건혹자처우중성상태，대매주지구동계폭우과정적발생몰유직접관계。
Using the conventional meteorological data , NCEP every 6 hours 2.5°×2.5°global reanalysis data and the National Climate Center statistics products , Analysis of 30 -31 December 1988 ( referred to as process 1 ) and 15 -16 December 2013 (referred to as process 2) two large winter storm process in Meizhou City have been made to provide a reference for forecasting win-ter rainstorm.It is shown that the two winter rainstorms are occurring in the bay of Bengal stronger Southern Branch trough eastward process.Meizhou is located in the strong divergence area right of the upper level jet system and lower edges of the strong low wind convergence zone .Rainstorm areas are generally distributed along the northwest side of the subtropical edge .The central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomaly is normal , Whether there is a typical El Nino /La Nina event or in a neutral state , the process of occurring winter rainstorm is not directly related Meizhou .