CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规气象资料和三门峡多普勒雷达资料，对2013年7月中下旬发生在豫西山区的2次对流天气过程进行对比分析，结果发现：副热带高压所处状态和西风槽的特征在一定程度上决定了降水的性质和强度，有效把握这类天气特点，可很大程度避免预报的空报或漏报；夏季来自北路或东路的冷空气，在高空气流的引导下常常会触发局地强降水，甚至雷雨大风等；在雷达回波上，一个强回波单体长时间稳定维持或列车效应往往产生强降水；风廓线图可以用来判断是否有冷暖平流及风切变的变化。针对这两次对流天气过程，高空形势预报非常准确，但冷空气强度预报偏弱，若结合自动站资料、本地气候特点、地形地貌等特征，则可以准确订正出来。
이용상규기상자료화삼문협다보륵뢰체자료，대2013년7월중하순발생재예서산구적2차대류천기과정진행대비분석，결과발현：부열대고압소처상태화서풍조적특정재일정정도상결정료강수적성질화강도，유효파악저류천기특점，가흔대정도피면예보적공보혹루보；하계래자북로혹동로적랭공기，재고공기류적인도하상상회촉발국지강강수，심지뇌우대풍등；재뢰체회파상，일개강회파단체장시간은정유지혹열차효응왕왕산생강강수；풍곽선도가이용래판단시부유랭난평류급풍절변적변화。침대저량차대류천기과정，고공형세예보비상준학，단랭공기강도예보편약，약결합자동참자료、본지기후특점、지형지모등특정，칙가이준학정정출래。
Based on the conventional meteorological data and Doppler radar data of Sanmenxia,two weather processes occured in the mountainous ares in western Henan in mid to late July 2013 were analyzed. Results show that subtropical high is(more or less)properties and westerly trough(sliding slot or plateau trough)to a certain extent determines the nature and intensity of precipitation,which need to be special attention,effective use of this kind of weather characteristics,and can greatly improve the accuracy of prediction and service quality,to avoid empty and omissions. Precipitation in summer is very strong,especially the strong precipitation,even the thunderstorm gale. Rainfall in the radar echo is usually embodied in a single long time stability caused by or somewhere by the effect of continuous monomer. Wind profile can judge whether the cold advection exists,variation of wind shear. The upper situation forecast is very accurate,but the cold air intensity forecast is weak. If combined with the trend prediction,the effective combination of real-time data and information,the local climate characteristic,and automatic station landform,the accuracy of forecasting can be greatly improved.