广西水利水电
廣西水利水電
엄서수이수전
GX WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER ENGINEERING
2014年
1期
31-33
,共3页
吴立愿%苏灵%陈宗娟
吳立願%囌靈%陳宗娟
오립원%소령%진종연
西江%枯水期来水量%简单分波法%AR(p)模型%预测%梧州水文站
西江%枯水期來水量%簡單分波法%AR(p)模型%預測%梧州水文站
서강%고수기래수량%간단분파법%AR(p)모형%예측%오주수문참
Xijiang River%dry-period inflow%simple partial wave method%AR(p) model%prediction%Wuzhou Hy-drological Station
在搜集西江控制站梧州水文站枯水期来水量资料系列的基础上，运用周期波叠加法结合AR（p）模型对该站枯水期来水量进行长期预测，预测结果显示此方案可用于天然状态下梧州水文站枯水期来水量的参考性预报，对珠江水量统一调度有一定的参考价值。
在搜集西江控製站梧州水文站枯水期來水量資料繫列的基礎上，運用週期波疊加法結閤AR（p）模型對該站枯水期來水量進行長期預測，預測結果顯示此方案可用于天然狀態下梧州水文站枯水期來水量的參攷性預報，對珠江水量統一調度有一定的參攷價值。
재수집서강공제참오주수문참고수기래수량자료계렬적기출상，운용주기파첩가법결합AR（p）모형대해참고수기래수량진행장기예측，예측결과현시차방안가용우천연상태하오주수문참고수기래수량적삼고성예보，대주강수량통일조도유일정적삼고개치。
Wuzhou Hydrological Station is one of the control stations of Xijiang River. The author collected the dry-period inflow records of this station, then made a long-term dry-period inflow prediction by use of periodic wave su-perposition method and AR(p) model. The results of prediction demonstrate that this scheme is able to provide a ref-erence prediction of dry-period inflow for Wuzhou Hydrological Station in natural state, which has certain reference value for unitary water regulation of Pearl River.
