CAJ | 학술논문

以南水北调西线工程引水区及邻近地区共13个气象站近60年的降雨、温度、日照时数、平均风速、平均湿度、平均水汽压资料为基础,分别运用M ann2 K en d al法、H ur st 系数法和小波方法对气象系列进行趋势、持续性和周期性分析。结果表明：各气象站温度年序列均呈显著上升趋势,而四季中的冬季上升尤为明显；降雨年序列92%的站点呈不明显上升趋势,但在春季上升显著；日照年序列64%的站点呈下降趋势。在空间分布上,气候因子趋势显著的站点多集中在河源段。各气象因子的Hurst 系数均大于0.5,说明系列正持续性效应明显,未来变化趋势与过去基本一致。此外,各气象因子序列具有较明显的6~18年震荡周期。
이남수북조서선공정인수구급린근지구공13개기상참근60년적강우、온도、일조시수、평균풍속、평균습도、평균수기압자료위기출,분별운용M ann2 K en d al법、H ur st 계수법화소파방법대기상계렬진행추세、지속성화주기성분석。결과표명：각기상참온도년서렬균정현저상승추세,이사계중적동계상승우위명현；강우년서렬92%적참점정불명현상승추세,단재춘계상승현저；일조년서렬64%적참점정하강추세。재공간분포상,기후인자추세현저적참점다집중재하원단。각기상인자적Hurst 계수균대우0.5,설명계렬정지속성효응명현,미래변화추세여과거기본일치。차외,각기상인자서렬구유교명현적6~18년진탕주기。
Based on the precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, mean w ind speed, average relative humidity, and average va2 por pressure data at 13 meteorological stations in the Western Route of South2to2North Water Diversion Project and adjacent re2 gions over the past 60 years, the Mann2Kendall test, Hurst coefficient method, and wavelet method were used to perform the trend, continuity, and periodicity analysis on these meteorological factors. The results indicated that (1) the temperature at each station increases significantly,especially in the winter;( 2) annual precipitation at 92% of total stations has an insignificant in2 creasingtrend,butprecipitationhasasignificantincreasingtrendinthespring;and(3) annualsunshinedurationat64% oftotal stationsshowsadecreasingtrend.Stationsthathaveapparentvariationtrendsofmeteorologicalfactorsoftenbelongtoheadwa2 ter catchment.Hurst coefficients of meteorological factors are were all greater than 0. 5, which indicated a positive long2term continuity and that the variation trend in future is similar to that in the past. Morover,each meteorological factor sequence had an obvious cycle of 6 to 18 years.