CAJ | 학술논문

基于对泥石流形成的多种因素分析,根据大、小型泥石流沟的实际特征,对大型泥石流沟选取了主沟长度、流域面积等9个评价指标,对小型泥石流沟选取了沟床平均宽度、主沟纵坡降等8个评价指标,利用熵权分析法和模糊综合评判法对单沟泥石流进行危险性评价.结果显示：小型泥石流沟对应于轻度、中度、高度、极高度危险等级,模糊评判结果所占比例分别为40.0%,26.7%,26.7%,6.7%,熵权评判结果所占比例分别为33.3%,46.7%,20%,0,两种评价结果一致率达到80%；大型泥石流沟两种评价结果一致率达到78%,因此两种评价结果的吻合程度较高.对于存在差异的泥石流沟进行野外实地查勘和历年灾情分析,表明基于模糊评判法对于单沟泥石流危险性评价的结果更为真实可靠,能够为泥石流灾害防治提供科学依据.
기우대니석류형성적다충인소분석,근거대、소형니석류구적실제특정,대대형니석류구선취료주구장도、류역면적등9개평개지표,대소형니석류구선취료구상평균관도、주구종파강등8개평개지표,이용적권분석법화모호종합평판법대단구니석류진행위험성평개.결과현시：소형니석류구대응우경도、중도、고도、겁고도위험등급,모호평판결과소점비례분별위40.0%,26.7%,26.7%,6.7%,적권평판결과소점비례분별위33.3%,46.7%,20%,0,량충평개결과일치솔체도80%；대형니석류구량충평개결과일치솔체도78%,인차량충평개결과적문합정도교고.대우존재차이적니석류구진행야외실지사감화력년재정분석,표명기우모호평판법대우단구니석류위험성평개적결과경위진실가고,능구위니석류재해방치제공과학의거.
According to the actual characteristics of large and small watersheds, the article selected a total of nine indexes including the main channel length, the basin area, etc. for large basins and eight indexes covering average width of gully bed, main longitudinal grade, etc. for small watersheds. The entropy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to carry out a hazard assessment of each gully and the results showed that for a small debris flow gully, the proportions of fuzzy evaluation results were 40.0%, 26.7%, 26.7%, 6.7%and the proportions of entropy evaluation results were 33.3%, 46.7%, 20%, 0, corresponding respectively to mild, moderate, highly, extremely highly dangerous levels. The correspondence rate of the two methods was 80%for small gullies and 78%for large gullies, indicating that the evaluation results were more accurate and reliable, and they were consistent with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method via a field survey and a situation analysis for the differences of a debris flow gully. Therefore, it is more reliable for a single gully debris flow hazard assessment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the results can provide a scientific basis for debris flow disaster prevention and control.