CAJ | 학술논문

在对陆浑水库经验性洪水预报模型介绍的基础上,根据历史数据及流域地貌信息确定了模型参数,对1975-2011年25场洪水的计算结果与实测值进行了对比,同时对2003-2011年的7场洪水预报结果与黄委水文局小花间洪水预报模型预报结果进行了对比。结果表明：两模型模拟结果精度相差不大,都能满足预报精度要求,7场洪水小花间洪水预报模型模拟结果整体效果稍好,尤其是洪水过程与实测过程比较吻合；经验性洪水预报模拟结果稍差,但误差在可接受范围之内。两个模型都具有一定实用性,建议两模型联合运用,将小花间洪水预报模型的洪水预报结果作为指导水库防洪调度的主要依据,经验模型的预报结果作为参考。
재대륙혼수고경험성홍수예보모형개소적기출상,근거역사수거급류역지모신식학정료모형삼수,대1975-2011년25장홍수적계산결과여실측치진행료대비,동시대2003-2011년적7장홍수예보결과여황위수문국소화간홍수예보모형예보결과진행료대비。결과표명：량모형모의결과정도상차불대,도능만족예보정도요구,7장홍수소화간홍수예보모형모의결과정체효과초호,우기시홍수과정여실측과정비교문합；경험성홍수예보모의결과초차,단오차재가접수범위지내。량개모형도구유일정실용성,건의량모형연합운용,장소화간홍수예보모형적홍수예보결과작위지도수고방홍조도적주요의거,경험모형적예보결과작위삼고。
The empirical flood forecasting mode was introduced, whose parameters were determined according to the historical data and geomorphological information. The results of 25 floods simulated with the empirical flood forecasting model were compared with the observed data, and the forecasting results of 7 floods during 2003-2011 were also compared with those of the Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model, indicating that the accuracy of the two models was similar and met the requirements for forecasting accuracy. The results of the empirical model were a little more inadequate than those of the Xiaohuajian Model for the 7 floods. However, the two models both worked in a practicable function and could be combined together for better application. The results from the Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model can be used to guide reservoir flood control and those from the empirical method can serve as a reference.