CAJ | 학술논문

运用数理统计、Morlet小波分析、累积距平分析、Yamamoto、Mann-Kendall秩相关系数等方法研究了窟野河年平均径流量及其主周期和突变点变化情况,并通过模拟天然径流量求解了人类活动因子对河流径流量的影响程度。结果表明：1)1950-2011年窟野河径流量呈波动下降趋势,存在丰枯位相交替的多时间尺度变化特征,径流变化的主周期依次为14,31,7,22年,径流量突变发生在1979年,1998年或1999年前后；2)窟野河天然径流量模拟结果显示,1985年以来窟野河人为活动影响程度的平均值明显高于1974-1985年的平均值,且1985年以来年平均径流量明显减少,说明高强度能源开发是导致窟野河减流的重要原因；3)窟野河流域气温、降水量的突变时间发生在1991年,其与径流量突变时间的不一致性再次证实了人类活动特别是大规模能源开发和地下水开采是导致窟野河减流的主要人文因子。
운용수리통계、Morlet소파분석、루적거평분석、Yamamoto、Mann-Kendall질상관계수등방법연구료굴야하년평균경류량급기주주기화돌변점변화정황,병통과모의천연경류량구해료인류활동인자대하류경류량적영향정도。결과표명：1)1950-2011년굴야하경류량정파동하강추세,존재봉고위상교체적다시간척도변화특정,경류변화적주주기의차위14,31,7,22년,경류량돌변발생재1979년,1998년혹1999년전후；2)굴야하천연경류량모의결과현시,1985년이래굴야하인위활동영향정도적평균치명현고우1974-1985년적평균치,차1985년이래년평균경류량명현감소,설명고강도능원개발시도치굴야하감류적중요원인；3)굴야하류역기온、강수량적돌변시간발생재1991년,기여경류량돌변시간적불일치성재차증실료인류활동특별시대규모능원개발화지하수개채시도치굴야하감류적주요인문인자。
Methods of mathematical statistics, Morlet wavelet analysis, accumulative anomaly, Yamamoto, Mann-Kendall trend analysis were used to study the changes, the periodic variations and catastrophe points of the annual runoff of Kuye River and, in the meantime, the natural runoff of Kuye River was simulated to calculate the impact of humanistic factors on the runoff. The results showed that: 1) The runoff of Kuye River had been in a fluctuating descending tendency from 1950 to 2011, its main cycles were 14 a, 31 a, 7 a and 22 a, and the catastrophe points occurred in 1979, 1998, 1999; 2) The simulation results of the natural annual runoff of Kuye River showed that, since 1985 the average value of the intensification of human activities has been higher than the average value during 1974-1985, and the reduction of the river runoff has been obvious. Therefore the intensive energy development was an important cause of runoff reduction; 3) The catastrophe points of temperature, precipitation in Kuye River basin occurred in 1991 and this difference showed that human activity, especially the intensive energy development and groundwater exploitation, was the main humanistic factor behind runoff reduction.