CAJ | 학술논문

以近10几年的地震目录为基础，对川滇地区主要断裂带 GSHAP 地震危险性评估的预测结果与近十几年来的实际地震活动性进行了对比。结果表明，小江断裂以东的昭通地区以及滇西内弧带中段的哈巴和玉龙雪山东麓断裂带近年来的地震活动性较强，与 GSHAP 的评估相符；龙门山断裂带和怒江断裂以西的盈江地区近年的地震活动性较强，其活动性在 GSHAP 中被低估；而在GSHAP 中确定的高危地区，如澜沧江断裂、小江断裂、红河断裂、鲜水河断裂周边区域，近十几年内的构造活动低于预期，如红河断裂与澜沧江断裂近年来的地震活动性较弱，而怒江断裂只在南端的保山等地区有较强的地震活动性。
이근10궤년적지진목록위기출，대천전지구주요단렬대 GSHAP 지진위험성평고적예측결과여근십궤년래적실제지진활동성진행료대비。결과표명，소강단렬이동적소통지구이급전서내호대중단적합파화옥룡설산동록단렬대근년래적지진활동성교강，여 GSHAP 적평고상부；룡문산단렬대화노강단렬이서적영강지구근년적지진활동성교강，기활동성재 GSHAP 중피저고；이재GSHAP 중학정적고위지구，여란창강단렬、소강단렬、홍하단렬、선수하단렬주변구역，근십궤년내적구조활동저우예기，여홍하단렬여란창강단렬근년래적지진활동성교약，이노강단렬지재남단적보산등지구유교강적지진활동성。
Vast active faults and their seismic activity in Yunnan-Sichuan area had been devel-oped since the Cenozoic.Based on the earthquake catalogue and existing data of active faults,we compared the actual seismic activity of major fault zones in the past ten years in Yunnan-Sichuan area with the forecast results made by GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program), and then concluded the similarities and differences between them. <br> The comparison showed that seismic activities in Longmenshan fault zone were greatly un-derestimated in GSHAP,for most of the earthquakes along Longmenshan fault zone were after-shocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Coulomb stress change caused by the mainshock of Wenchuan earthquake triggered the 2013 Lushan earthquake,and then reduced the seismic hazard of the southeastern segment of Xianshuihe fault.In the past decade,low seismic activities showed in outer arc belt of Yunnan-Sichuan area,mainly including Xianshuihe fault,Anninghe fault, Xiaojiang fault and other minor faults,whose seismic hazard were greatly overestimated in GS-HAP.The similar situation appeared on Red River fault,Lancangjiang fault and Litang fault, part of the inner arc belt,which had the highest seismic hazard assessed by GSHAP.Otherwise, seismic activities of Yingjiang area in southwestern Yunnan started to enhance since 2008,while the seismic hazard in that area was neglected in GSHAP.Along Nujiang fault,only in the south segment and Baoshan area existed higher seismic activity,which was consistent with GSHAP.On the other side,eastern piedmont fault of the Haba-Yulong Snow Mountains,belonging to the middle part of the inner arc belt,showed higher seismic activities in recent years,which con-formed to the assessment of GSHAP.From the Zhaotong area to the east of Xiaojiang fault showed high seismic activities,consistent with GSHAP as well. <br> The above comparisons were based on the earthquake catalogue in the past ten years,while the time horizon of GSHAP would be fifty years in future,and cycle of one devastating earth-quake could be millennium,therefore large difference doesn't mean complete distortion of the esti-mates of GSHAP.