CAJ | 학술논문

伴随全球经济的快速发展，交通运输业规模不断扩张，已经成为能源消耗、温室气体排放增速最快的行业。文章以高碳特征突出的河北省为研究对象，在刻画交通运输业能源消耗和二氧化碳排放状况的基础上，建立灰色预测GM （1，1）模型，利用Matlab软件对河北省交通运输业的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量进行预测，并在节能减排情景设定下估测节能减排潜力，进而探讨挖掘交通运输业节能减排潜力的路径与对策。
반수전구경제적쾌속발전，교통운수업규모불단확장，이경성위능원소모、온실기체배방증속최쾌적행업。문장이고탄특정돌출적하북성위연구대상，재각화교통운수업능원소모화이양화탄배방상황적기출상，건립회색예측GM （1，1）모형，이용Matlab연건대하북성교통운수업적능원소모화이양화탄배방량진행예측，병재절능감배정경설정하고측절능감배잠력，진이탐토알굴교통운수업절능감배잠력적로경여대책。
With the rapid development of the global economy , the scale of transportation industry is expanding , and it has become the fastest growing industry in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission .This paper takes Hebei Province whose high carbon characteristic is very prominent as the research object , establishes grey predicion GM ( 1 , 1 ) model based on the characterizations of transportation energy consumption and carbon dioxide emis -sions, predicts the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Hebei province transportation industry by u -sing Matlab software , estimates the potential of energy-saving and emission-reduction , then explores the path and countermeasures of energy-saving and emission-reduction potential in transportation industry .