CAJ | 학술논문

运用时间序列分析法，对第10届、11届全运会的旅游影响进行实证，对12届全运会的旅游价值进行预测。结果表明，2004-2007年，第10届全运会为南京吸引442.07万人次国内游客，旅游增收49.95亿元，贡献率分别为3.117%和3.263%。2008-2011年间，第11届全运会为济南吸引329万人次国内游客，旅游增收42.87亿元，贡献率分别为2.639%和3.777%。两届全运会均表现出显著的旅游“后发效应”。2012-2015年，第12届全运会将为沈阳吸引617.48万人次国内旅游者和带来123.451亿元的国内旅游收入。
운용시간서렬분석법，대제10계、11계전운회적여유영향진행실증，대12계전운회적여유개치진행예측。결과표명，2004-2007년，제10계전운회위남경흡인442.07만인차국내유객，여유증수49.95억원，공헌솔분별위3.117%화3.263%。2008-2011년간，제11계전운회위제남흡인329만인차국내유객，여유증수42.87억원，공헌솔분별위2.639%화3.777%。량계전운회균표현출현저적여유“후발효응”。2012-2015년，제12계전운회장위침양흡인617.48만인차국내여유자화대래123.451억원적국내여유수입。
By using the time series analysis method,it demonstrated the tourism value of the 10th and the 11th National Games,tried to predict the tourism value of the 12 National Games. The results showed that the 10th National Games in Nanjing attracted 4420700 domestic tourists,and increased 4. 995 billion yuan domestic tourism income from 2004 to 2007,the contribution rate is 3. 117% and 3. 263% respectively. The 11th National Games in Jinan attracted 3290000 domestic tourists,and increased 4. 287 billion yuan domestic tourism income from 2008 to 2011,the contribution rate are 2. 639% and 3. 777% respectively. Both National Games showed a significant post - effect on tourism in two years after holding. The 12th National Games in Shenyang will attract 6174800 do-mestic tourists,and bring 12. 3451 billion yuan revenue from domestic tourism during 2012 - 2015.