CAJ | 학술논문

基于金沙江下游梯级水电开发区10个气象站1956-2011年的逐月降水资料，运用线性倾向估计法、Morlet 小波分析法和 R/ S 分析法对多年降水和季节降水变化及其趋势、周期和持续性特征进行分析。结果表明：研究区1956-2011年降水量呈波动式下降趋势，降水倾向率为-1.338 mm/ a；季节降水中除春季呈微小上升趋势外，夏、秋和冬季均呈下降趋势，且空间差异明显；夏、秋季的降水量占全年的81.1%，尤以夏季为主导，占57.4%；年降水存在1~2 a、4 a 、8 a 、14 a和31 a 的周期变化规律，其中8 a 的周期尤为明显，通过90%置信水平检验；研究区降水序列总体上存在明显的 Hurst 现象，具有持续性特征，未来降水仍会维持减少趋势。
기우금사강하유제급수전개발구10개기상참1956-2011년적축월강수자료，운용선성경향고계법、Morlet 소파분석법화 R/ S 분석법대다년강수화계절강수변화급기추세、주기화지속성특정진행분석。결과표명：연구구1956-2011년강수량정파동식하강추세，강수경향솔위-1.338 mm/ a；계절강수중제춘계정미소상승추세외，하、추화동계균정하강추세，차공간차이명현；하、추계적강수량점전년적81.1%，우이하계위주도，점57.4%；년강수존재1~2 a、4 a 、8 a 、14 a화31 a 적주기변화규률，기중8 a 적주기우위명현，통과90%치신수평검험；연구구강수서렬총체상존재명현적 Hurst 현상，구유지속성특정，미래강수잉회유지감소추세。
This study focused on the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the cascade hydropower development zone in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River. The changing trends, periodic oscillation, and duration characteristics of multi-annual and seasonal precipitation were analyzed using linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis, and R/ S analysis methods, based on monthly precipitation data of ten meteorological stations in the study area during the period from 1956 to 2011. The results show that the annual precipitation in the study area during the period from 1956 to 2011 has shown a fluctuant downward trend at a tendency rate of -1. 338 mm per year. The precipitation increased slightly in spring and decreased in summer, autumn, and winter, with significant spatial differences. The precipitation in summer and autumn accounted for 81. 1% of the annual precipitation, especially the precipitation in summer, which was the leading factor accounting for 57. 4% of the annual precipitation. The periodic oscillation of annual precipitation was concentrated in one to two years, expectant four years, eight years, 14 years, and 31 years, and especially in expectant eight years, which was verified by a 90% confidence level test. There was an obvious Hurst effect of the precipitation series in the study area, with a feature of persistence in general, and the precipitation will maintain a decreasing trend in the future.