价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
VALUE ENGINEERING
2014年
20期
320-321
,共2页
动态数列%直线趋势%预测
動態數列%直線趨勢%預測
동태수렬%직선추세%예측
dynamic sequence%linear trend%forecasting
本文通过采取步长和初始时间序列不同的两种情况，根据运用公式1计算的结果初步推断出动态数列直线趋势预测方法和参数的取值的规律，并对此规律进行数学证明和实例验证，并由此提出公式2和3。通过本文的论述可以得出，按照直线趋势预测法进行预测，预测值与取时间序列的第一个取值无关，也与时间序列间的步长大小无关，只要时间序列间的步长相等即可，预测值都是一样的，且预测值呈等差数列。
本文通過採取步長和初始時間序列不同的兩種情況，根據運用公式1計算的結果初步推斷齣動態數列直線趨勢預測方法和參數的取值的規律，併對此規律進行數學證明和實例驗證，併由此提齣公式2和3。通過本文的論述可以得齣，按照直線趨勢預測法進行預測，預測值與取時間序列的第一箇取值無關，也與時間序列間的步長大小無關，隻要時間序列間的步長相等即可，預測值都是一樣的，且預測值呈等差數列。
본문통과채취보장화초시시간서렬불동적량충정황，근거운용공식1계산적결과초보추단출동태수렬직선추세예측방법화삼수적취치적규률，병대차규률진행수학증명화실례험증，병유차제출공식2화3。통과본문적논술가이득출，안조직선추세예측법진행예측，예측치여취시간서렬적제일개취치무관，야여시간서렬간적보장대소무관，지요시간서렬간적보장상등즉가，예측치도시일양적，차예측치정등차수렬。
Taking the two cases of different step length and initial time series, according to the calculation results using formula 1, the dynamic series linear trend forecasting methods and parameters evaluation law are inferred and mathematical proof and verified examples are carried out to the law, and based on this, formula 2 and 3 are put forward. Through the discussion of this paper, it can be concluded that, according to the linear trend prediction method, the forecast value has nothing to do with the first value of the time sequence, also has nothing to do with the step length between time series, as long as the step length between the time sequences is equal, the predicted value is the same, and in arithmetic progression.
