广东电力
廣東電力
엄동전력
GUANGDONG ELECTRIC POWER
2014年
6期
38-42,63
,共6页
陈健卯%熊仕斌%穆永铮%鲁宗相
陳健卯%熊仕斌%穆永錚%魯宗相
진건묘%웅사빈%목영쟁%로종상
地区供电网%可靠性发展模型%饱和特性%灰色系统%分类评估
地區供電網%可靠性髮展模型%飽和特性%灰色繫統%分類評估
지구공전망%가고성발전모형%포화특성%회색계통%분류평고
regional power supply network%reliability development model%saturation characteristic%grey system%classifica-tion assessment
针对现阶段对于可靠性发展目标缺少有效决策工具的问题，提出地区供电网中长期可靠性发展模型，该模型根据供电网发展过程对可靠性指标的变化趋势进行总结，利用灰色系统预测对模型进行求解，得到供电网可靠性年度指标预测函数、供电网可靠性的饱和特性及其出现时间。最后，通过实际地区供电网的数据分析及算例验证了该模型的有效性。
針對現階段對于可靠性髮展目標缺少有效決策工具的問題，提齣地區供電網中長期可靠性髮展模型，該模型根據供電網髮展過程對可靠性指標的變化趨勢進行總結，利用灰色繫統預測對模型進行求解，得到供電網可靠性年度指標預測函數、供電網可靠性的飽和特性及其齣現時間。最後，通過實際地區供電網的數據分析及算例驗證瞭該模型的有效性。
침대현계단대우가고성발전목표결소유효결책공구적문제，제출지구공전망중장기가고성발전모형，해모형근거공전망발전과정대가고성지표적변화추세진행총결，이용회색계통예측대모형진행구해，득도공전망가고성년도지표예측함수、공전망가고성적포화특성급기출현시간。최후，통과실제지구공전망적수거분석급산례험증료해모형적유효성。
Aiming at problem of lacking effective decision tools for reliability development at present stage,this paper pro-poses medium-long term reliability development model for regional power supply network which is able to make summariza-tion for variation trend of reliability index according to power supply network developing process and acquire yearly index forecasting function,saturation characteristic and its appearing time for power supply network reliability by using grey sys-tem forecast for solution to the model.Finally,it verifies effectiveness of this model by data analysis and example of practi-cal regional power supply network.
