CAJ | 학술논문

目的：分析舟山市2010-2012年手足口病月发病情况，比较手足口病发病季节趋势并探讨高峰变化原因。方法用圆形分布法分析手足口病发病高峰日期，分别用Watson-William法和Watson＇s U2法对3年发病高峰进行比较。采用卡方检验分析不同亚型病原体分布，用Bonferroni法进行两两比较。结果舟山市2010-2012年手足口病发病均存在季节性集中趋势（P＜0.01），5月8日-9月1日是疫情高峰期；3年间发病高峰时间不尽相同（P＜0.01），2012年发病高峰时间早于2010年及2011年（P＜0.01）。2010-2012年报告356例实验室诊断病例，病原体分布各年不同（P＜0.01），其中2010年、2011年以 EV 71病毒为主，分别占58.46％、64.62％；而2012年以其他肠道病毒为主，占48.84％；两两比较表明，2010年、2011年分别与2012年病原体构成不同，差异有统计学意义（P＜0.01）。结论舟山市手足口病发生有明显的季节高峰，病原体优势毒株发生变化，由EV 71转变为其他肠道病毒。
목적：분석주산시2010-2012년수족구병월발병정황，비교수족구병발병계절추세병탐토고봉변화원인。방법용원형분포법분석수족구병발병고봉일기，분별용Watson-William법화Watson＇s U2법대3년발병고봉진행비교。채용잡방검험분석불동아형병원체분포，용Bonferroni법진행량량비교。결과주산시2010-2012년수족구병발병균존재계절성집중추세（P＜0.01），5월8일-9월1일시역정고봉기；3년간발병고봉시간불진상동（P＜0.01），2012년발병고봉시간조우2010년급2011년（P＜0.01）。2010-2012년보고356례실험실진단병례，병원체분포각년불동（P＜0.01），기중2010년、2011년이 EV 71병독위주，분별점58.46％、64.62％；이2012년이기타장도병독위주，점48.84％；량량비교표명，2010년、2011년분별여2012년병원체구성불동，차이유통계학의의（P＜0.01）。결론주산시수족구병발생유명현적계절고봉，병원체우세독주발생변화，유EV 71전변위기타장도병독。
Objective Todescribethemonthlyincidencedistributionofhand-foot-mouthdisease(HFMD)from2010to 2012inZhoushancityandtoanalyzetheseasonaltrendandthecausesofpeakchanges.Methods Circulardistribution method was used to identify the peak period of HFMD incidence.Watson -William test and Watson's U2 test were applied for comparing the peak periods respectively.Chi -square test was conducted to analyze and compare the distribution of HFMDpathogenindifferentyearsandBonferronimethodwasusedformultiplecomparisons.Results Therewasseasonal centralized tendency of HFMD incidence during 2010 to 2012 (P<0.01).The peak period occurred between 8th of May and 1st of September which showed a significant difference among three years (P<0.01).Specifically,the peak period in 2012 was earlier than that in 2010 and 201 1 (both P<0.01 ).Among the 356 reported cases with laboratory confirmed, there was significant difference between the distribution of HFMD pathogen by Chi -square test (P <0.01 ).The predominant strain was EV71 in 2010 and 2011 accounting for 58.46%and 64.62%respectively and other enteric viruses in 2012 accounting for 48.84%.The ratio of pathogens in 2012 was statistically different from that in 2010 and 201 1 respectively(bothP<0.01).Conclusion HFMDcasesoccurwithobviouspeakseason,regionalandgeographic differences.The major pathogens of EV71 in 2010 and 2011 were changed into other enteric viruses in 2012.