CAJ | 학술논문

邢台县作为河北省重要粮食生产县之一，受旱灾影响日趋严重。根据1954-2010年逐月降水数据，采用标准化降水指数（SPI)进行趋势分析和 M-K 趋势突变检验，研究邢台县冬小麦和夏玉米不同生育阶段干旱发生的规律。结果表明，邢台县干旱发生强度和频率都在增大，以中旱和重旱为主，20世纪50年代后期干旱趋势显著，60年代和90年代干旱趋势相对明显。冬小麦 SPI1指数下降速率在灌浆-成熟阶段最大、拔节阶段次之、再之是苗生长阶段，此3个阶段干旱加剧较其它生育阶段明显，除播种前和抽穗-开花阶段，其他各生育阶段 SPI 指数自1980年初均有不同程度下降，干旱趋势相对明显。夏玉米生育期的早中期阶段 SPI1指数呈下降的趋势，播种-拔节阶段、拔节-抽雄阶段是干旱的频发期，除播种前和灌浆-成熟阶段，其他各生育阶段 SPI1指数自1970年后期开始下降，呈现干旱趋势。
형태현작위하북성중요양식생산현지일，수한재영향일추엄중。근거1954-2010년축월강수수거，채용표준화강수지수（SPI)진행추세분석화 M-K 추세돌변검험，연구형태현동소맥화하옥미불동생육계단간한발생적규률。결과표명，형태현간한발생강도화빈솔도재증대，이중한화중한위주，20세기50년대후기간한추세현저，60년대화90년대간한추세상대명현。동소맥 SPI1지수하강속솔재관장-성숙계단최대、발절계단차지、재지시묘생장계단，차3개계단간한가극교기타생육계단명현，제파충전화추수-개화계단，기타각생육계단 SPI 지수자1980년초균유불동정도하강，간한추세상대명현。하옥미생육기적조중기계단 SPI1지수정하강적추세，파충-발절계단、발절-추웅계단시간한적빈발기，제파충전화관장-성숙계단，기타각생육계단 SPI1지수자1970년후기개시하강，정현간한추세。
Xingtai county, as one of the major grain production counties in Hebei province, is seriously affected by drought. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 1954-2010 years, standardized precipitation index (SPI) for trend fitting and Mann-Kendall trend mutation testing was used to study the inter-annual variation of meteorological drought of the winter wheat and summer maize growing in Xingtai county. More attention was payed to analyze the regularity of drought in its dif-ferent growth stages. The results showed that intensity and frequency of droughts was increasing in Xingtai county. Moderate drought and severe drought was the main trend. The trend of drought was significant in the late 1950s, relatively more obvi-ous in late 1960s and 1990s. Winter wheat SPI1 index was decreased fast in filling to maturing stage of winter wheat, then came to the jointing stage. The last was the further growth of the seedling stage. The three stages was meteorological drought intensified significantly over other growth stages before sowing and heading-flowering stage. The SPI1 Index of other growth stages was declined in varying degrees since the early 1980s, but the trend was relatively obvious. Summer corn SPI1 index showed a downward trend in summer maize growth period. Drought was frequent in planting-jointing stage and jointing-head-ing stage, in addition to before planting and filling-mature stage. Other growth stages of the SPI1 index started to decline since the late 1970s, with the same trend as that of the drought.