CAJ | 학술논문

变形监测的最终目的是预测，即利用长期积累的观测资料掌握变化规律，对建筑物的未来形态做出及时有效的分析和预报。在长期观测中可以得到许多已知的信息（白色信息），而观测不可能是不间断的，所以存在大量的未知信息（黑色信息），从而就可以构建灰色系统模型。文章系统地介绍了灰色系统理论的概念，与此同时，采用了某建筑沉降观测的数据，通过具体计算，来说明灰色系统进行变形监测分析与预报的步骤，以及不同灰色模型对预报精度的影响，并得出一些结论。
변형감측적최종목적시예측，즉이용장기적루적관측자료장악변화규률，대건축물적미래형태주출급시유효적분석화예보。재장기관측중가이득도허다이지적신식（백색신식），이관측불가능시불간단적，소이존재대량적미지신식（흑색신식），종이취가이구건회색계통모형。문장계통지개소료회색계통이론적개념，여차동시，채용료모건축침강관측적수거，통과구체계산，래설명회색계통진행변형감측분석여예보적보취，이급불동회색모형대예보정도적영향，병득출일사결론。
The final purpose to monitor the base is to forecast the possible settlement.If the law of settlement can be acquired from the observing data,we can analyse and forecast the safety of the buildings.Some white information can be acquired during the long-time monitoring.However,some other information is still unknown,which called black informa-tion.So grey system models can be constructed,which have been widely used in many ways.This paper introduced the definition of the grey system theory,meanwhile,adopted a building settlement observation data,through specific calcula-tion,to illustrate the steps of analysis and forecast of deformation monitoring carried by using gray system,and influence of the different grey model on the prediction accuracy,and got some conclusions.