CAJ | 학술논문

选取福建将乐地区主要造林树种杉木为研究对象。在福建省将乐林场杉木人工林中，选取杉木36株，对衫木枝进行数据解析，运用SPSS20．0对杉木枝条基径数据进行分析，建立平均枝条基径预估模型。对枝条基径预估理论模型进行比较，选择改进的单分子Mitschelich模型为最优基础模型；对线性模型、理论模型、复合模型（改进的理论模型）的拟合效果做出了比较。结果表明：以枝条着枝深度、胸径、冠长为变量的复合模型为预估枝条基径最优模型，模型的估测精度达到了91．33％。
선취복건장악지구주요조림수충삼목위연구대상。재복건성장악림장삼목인공림중，선취삼목36주，대삼목지진행수거해석，운용SPSS20．0대삼목지조기경수거진행분석，건립평균지조기경예고모형。대지조기경예고이론모형진행비교，선택개진적단분자Mitschelich모형위최우기출모형；대선성모형、이론모형、복합모형（개진적이론모형）적의합효과주출료비교。결과표명：이지조착지심도、흉경、관장위변량적복합모형위예고지조기경최우모형，모형적고측정도체도료91．33％。
By selecting Cunninghamia lanceolata in the main afforestation tree species in Fujian Province, we analyzed the bran- ches diameter data by SPSS20.0, established the prediction models of average branch diameter with 36 trees in JiangleState-owned Forest Farm, Sanming City, Fujian Province.Branches of the theoretical model of base diameter forecast modelimproved the single molecule Mitschelich model as the optimal foundation model.We made a comparison of linear model,theoretical model and complex model (improved theoretical model).The result shows that the complex model with thedepth of the branches, the diameter at breast height and crown long is the optimal model to estimate the branch diameter, with the accuracy of the prediction model of 91.33%.