CAJ | 학술논문

应用马尔可夫链的方法，以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权，建立了适合于预测神木县年降雨量的加权马尔可夫链模型，结合模糊集理论中的级别特征值，预测了神木县2004年的年降雨量，并采用平稳分布估计了神木县年降雨量处于各状态的重现期，结果表明，神木县年降雨量处于正常年几率最大。
응용마이가부련적방법，이규범화적각계자상관계수위권，건립료괄합우예측신목현년강우량적가권마이가부련모형，결합모호집이론중적급별특정치，예측료신목현2004년적년강우량，병채용평은분포고계료신목현년강우량처우각상태적중현기，결과표명，신목현년강우량처우정상년궤솔최대。
The weighted Markov chain method is applied to each order autocorrelation coefficient of the standardization of rights, established suit-able model for predicting annual rainfall of Shenmu county and connecting with the level characteristic value in the theory of fuzzy sets, forecasting the 2004 annual rainfall. And the results show that the possibility of normal year and weak drought year is the larger according to the stationary distribution.