CAJ | 학술논문

在安全填埋场的地下水环境影响评价中，污染途径、边界条件、控制方程等均存在不确定性。本文首先对这些造成环境影响评价结果不确定性的来源进行了定性识别。随后以某安全填埋场为例，采用多参数序列表达不确定性来源及程度，通过构建多套模拟情景，采用MODFLOW和MT3DMS进行数值模拟。计算结果表明：对以垂向运动为主的地下水系统，丰、平、枯等地下水流场对地下水中污染物的浓度增量、空间分布范围影响较小，地下水流场情景设置可简化，仅设丰、平两组；污染负荷是控制地下水污染物浓度的关键因素，其中地下水中有机物受污染范围由渗滤液负荷范围决定，且受污染物吸附-降解特性等反应项参数影响，渗滤液中重金属的影响范围由水力弥散度等弥散项参数决定。
재안전전매장적지하수배경영향평개중，오염도경、변계조건、공제방정등균존재불학정성。본문수선대저사조성배경영향평개결과불학정성적래원진행료정성식별。수후이모안전전매장위례，채용다삼수서렬표체불학정성래원급정도，통과구건다투모의정경，채용MODFLOW화MT3DMS진행수치모의。계산결과표명：대이수향운동위주적지하수계통，봉、평、고등지하수류장대지하수중오염물적농도증량、공간분포범위영향교소，지하수류장정경설치가간화，부설봉、평량조；오염부하시공제지하수오염물농도적관건인소，기중지하수중유궤물수오염범위유삼려액부하범위결정，차수오염물흡부-강해특성등반응항삼수영향，삼려액중중금속적영향범위유수력미산도등미산항삼수결정。
The EIA of secure landfill is confronted with uncertainties caused by pollution way,boundarycon-ditionand controlling equation. With the secure landfilllocated in Hangzhou Bay as an example, this paper established several models with inputparameters expressing the source and degree of uncertainties. MOD-FLOW and MT3DMS were used for numerically solving the models. In the place where the groundwater flow is vertical-dominated, flow fieldscenariosaffect pollutant concentrationsin the groundwater and areas im-pacted by the landfill to some degree. Therefore, flow fieldscenarios of such landfill EIA could be simpli-fied into two scenarios:high flow year and normal year.The pollutant concentration in the groundwater is up to the leachateload of the landfill. Meanwhile,the organic matter’s concentration is influenced by adsorp-tion reaction items, while the heavy metal’sconcentration is affected by hydraulic dispersion parameters sig-nificantly.