CAJ | 학술논문

采用Morlet小波分析法和Mann-Kendall非参数统计法，分析1953-2010年鄱阳湖流域16个气象站年降水量序列的周期、趋势及突变特征，对比分析年降水量与年径流量的周期、趋势及突变特征，揭示年降水量与年径流量的响应关系。研究表明鄱阳湖流域年降水量序列存在3个主周期，分别为22a、7a、4a；1953-2010年鄱阳湖流域年降水量整体呈不显著的增长趋势，并在1992年发生显著性突变，置信度达95％；鄱阳湖流域年径流量的周期变化和趋势突变与年降水量在尺度范围、时间点位、空间分布以及显著程度均比较一致，显示鄱阳湖流域年降水量与年径流量之间在周期、趋势和突变方面存在显著的响应关系。
채용Morlet소파분석법화Mann-Kendall비삼수통계법，분석1953-2010년파양호류역16개기상참년강수량서렬적주기、추세급돌변특정，대비분석년강수량여년경류량적주기、추세급돌변특정，게시년강수량여년경류량적향응관계。연구표명파양호류역년강수량서렬존재3개주주기，분별위22a、7a、4a；1953-2010년파양호류역년강수량정체정불현저적증장추세，병재1992년발생현저성돌변，치신도체95％；파양호류역년경류량적주기변화화추세돌변여년강수량재척도범위、시간점위、공간분포이급현저정도균비교일치，현시파양호류역년강수량여년경류량지간재주기、추세화돌변방면존재현저적향응관계。
Morlet wavelet analysis method and Mann-Kendall non-infiltration statistics are used to analyze the period,tendency and abrupt change characteristics of annual precipitation orders in the years of 1953-2010 at 16 meteorological stations in Poyang Lake basin and to make a contrast analysis of the period,tendency and abrupt change characteristics between annual precipitation and annual runoff,and annual runoff.Research results indicate that there exist 3 main periods, being 22 a,7 a and 4 a respectively in the annual precipitation orders in Poyang Lake basin.The overall annual precipitation in the years of 1953-2010 appeared to have no obvious growing tend-ency in Poyang Lake basin,and in 1992,there occurred to have obvious change with the confi-dence reaching 9 5%;the periodic variation and tendency abrupt change in the annual runoff in Poyang Lake Basin are in coincidence with the annual precipitation in temporal scale,time point, spatial distribution and obvious degrees,whereby that there exists an obvious response relation-ship between the annual precipitation and the annual runoff in the period,tendency and abrupt change in Poyang Lake basin.