地球科学与环境学报
地毬科學與環境學報
지구과학여배경학보
JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES AND ENVIRONMENT
2014年
2期
73-80
,共8页
泥石流%预警%临界土体含水量%孔隙度%渗透系数%曲率系数%降雨
泥石流%預警%臨界土體含水量%孔隙度%滲透繫數%麯率繫數%降雨
니석류%예경%림계토체함수량%공극도%삼투계수%곡솔계수%강우
debris flow%forecasting%critical soil moisture%porosity%permeability coefficient%coefficient of curvature%rainfall
传统的泥石流预警方法多基于前期和实时降雨量等间接指标，但实际上直接影响泥石流启动的关键物理参数是土体含水量，通过分析土体含水量的变化来判断泥石流启动更为直接可靠。首先定义了泥石流启动的临界土体含水量的概念，然后基于国内外泥石流启动的观测试验数据，采用逐步回归分析方法，建立了临界土体含水量与土体渗透系数、孔隙度和颗粒曲率系数的经验关系，进而提出一种基于临界土体含水量和实时降雨的泥石流预警方法。最后，以云南东川蒋家沟1999年7月16日发生的一场泥石流为实例进行演算和验证。结果表明：该方法在可靠性和准确性上优于传统利用临界线和暴发线判别泥石流的预测模型。
傳統的泥石流預警方法多基于前期和實時降雨量等間接指標，但實際上直接影響泥石流啟動的關鍵物理參數是土體含水量，通過分析土體含水量的變化來判斷泥石流啟動更為直接可靠。首先定義瞭泥石流啟動的臨界土體含水量的概唸，然後基于國內外泥石流啟動的觀測試驗數據，採用逐步迴歸分析方法，建立瞭臨界土體含水量與土體滲透繫數、孔隙度和顆粒麯率繫數的經驗關繫，進而提齣一種基于臨界土體含水量和實時降雨的泥石流預警方法。最後，以雲南東川蔣傢溝1999年7月16日髮生的一場泥石流為實例進行縯算和驗證。結果錶明：該方法在可靠性和準確性上優于傳統利用臨界線和暴髮線判彆泥石流的預測模型。
전통적니석류예경방법다기우전기화실시강우량등간접지표，단실제상직접영향니석류계동적관건물리삼수시토체함수량，통과분석토체함수량적변화래판단니석류계동경위직접가고。수선정의료니석류계동적림계토체함수량적개념，연후기우국내외니석류계동적관측시험수거，채용축보회귀분석방법，건립료림계토체함수량여토체삼투계수、공극도화과립곡솔계수적경험관계，진이제출일충기우림계토체함수량화실시강우적니석류예경방법。최후，이운남동천장가구1999년7월16일발생적일장니석류위실례진행연산화험증。결과표명：해방법재가고성화준학성상우우전통이용림계선화폭발선판별니석류적예측모형。
Most of traditional debris flow forecasting methods are based on indirect variables such as antecedent and real-time rainfalls.But the key factor influencing directly the debris flow initiation is soil moisture,which is more reliable for debris flow forecasting.Firstly,the concept of critical soil moisture for debris flow initiation was defined; secondly, based on the experimental and observation data of debris flow initiation at home and abroad,the empirical relationships between critical soil moisture and permeability coefficient,porosity,coefficient of paritcle curvature were obtained by the means of step-wise regression analysis;finally,the forcasting method for debris flow based on critical soil moisture and real-time rainfall was proposed.The method was tested and verified by the debris flow happened at Jiangjiagou of Dongchuan,Yunnan on 1 6 July,1 999.The results show that the reliability and accuracy of new forcasting method is better than the traditional forecast method for debris flow based on critical line and occurrence line.
