CAJ | 학술논문

使用GPS掩星弯角资料和NCEP预报场资料，采用GSI (Grid-point Statistical Interpolation)变分同化系统，对同化掩星弯角资料前后的分析场以及数值预报结果进行详细比较，分析了弯角资料同化对2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨预报结果的影响。结果表明，同化掩星弯角资料对初始场中的温度、湿度产生明显影响，500 hPa和700 hPa温度调整中心量值达到0.5℃和-0.6℃，700 hPa湿度调整中心最大量值达-0.14 kg·kg-1；同化过程改变了强降水发生前流场结构，明显提高了强降水中心位置、雨带走向及范围、降水强度的预报准确性；由降水TS评分可知，200 mm以上大暴雨模拟改善效果明显，但对弱降水预报效果较差。
사용GPS엄성만각자료화NCEP예보장자료，채용GSI (Grid-point Statistical Interpolation)변분동화계통，대동화엄성만각자료전후적분석장이급수치예보결과진행상세비교，분석료만각자료동화대2012년7월21일북경특대폭우예보결과적영향。결과표명，동화엄성만각자료대초시장중적온도、습도산생명현영향，500 hPa화700 hPa온도조정중심량치체도0.5℃화-0.6℃，700 hPa습도조정중심최대량치체-0.14 kg·kg-1；동화과정개변료강강수발생전류장결구，명현제고료강강수중심위치、우대주향급범위、강수강도적예보준학성；유강수TS평분가지，200 mm이상대폭우모의개선효과명현，단대약강수예보효과교차。
Using GPS bending angle and NCEP forecast data , a comparative study was performed to the Beijing rainstorm event on July 21, 2012, with and without assimilation of the bending angle data, based on the GSI three-dimensional assimilation system. The result showed that bending angle data had clear impacts on the temperature and specific humidity fields; the central temperature increment is 0.5 ℃ at 500 hPa and-0.6℃at 700 hPa;the central increment of specific humidity at 700 hPa is-0.14 kg·kg-1. Assimilation of bending angle data changed the stream field and significantly improved the accuracy of the forecast, including the center location of precipitation, rain belt trend and precipitation intensity. According to the threat scores of simulating precipitation, the improvement on the simulation above 200 mm is more evident, but less effective on weak rainfall.