CAJ | 학술논문

应用常规资料、海南省乡镇自动站资料和海口多普勒雷达资料，对2013年3月20日海南岛罕见大范围强冰雹过程进行综合分析。结果表明：中层干冷气流叠加在低层暖湿气流上形成对流不稳定层结以及低层逆温为不稳定能量积聚提供了有利条件；中等到强的垂直风切变有利于强对流有组织发展和维持；海陆风辐合和地形抬升是海南低槽类冰雹发生的主要触发机制。该过程先后有4个超级单体产生，其中两个单体由一母体回波分裂后持续发展成为左移超级单体和右移超级单体，左移超级单体出现中反气旋，低层弱回波区位于其移动方向左后侧，右移超级单体出现中气旋，低层弱回波区位于其移动方向右后侧；在适宜的0℃层和-20℃层高度下，发现三体散射或中(反)气旋时立即发布冰雹警报，预报时效最长可提前20～30 min；冰雹发生前55 dBz回波顶在-20℃层高度之上，同时垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)均有跃增过程且其普遍达65 kg·m-2时，地面开始测得冰雹，当VIL跃增到60 kg·m-2时发布冰雹警报，预报时效最长则可提前1～3个体扫时间(约5～15 min)，当VIL降至40 kg·m-2以下时冰雹过程结束。
응용상규자료、해남성향진자동참자료화해구다보륵뢰체자료，대2013년3월20일해남도한견대범위강빙박과정진행종합분석。결과표명：중층간랭기류첩가재저층난습기류상형성대류불은정층결이급저층역온위불은정능량적취제공료유리조건；중등도강적수직풍절변유리우강대류유조직발전화유지；해륙풍복합화지형태승시해남저조류빙박발생적주요촉발궤제。해과정선후유4개초급단체산생，기중량개단체유일모체회파분렬후지속발전성위좌이초급단체화우이초급단체，좌이초급단체출현중반기선，저층약회파구위우기이동방향좌후측，우이초급단체출현중기선，저층약회파구위우기이동방향우후측；재괄의적0℃층화-20℃층고도하，발현삼체산사혹중(반)기선시립즉발포빙박경보，예보시효최장가제전20～30 min；빙박발생전55 dBz회파정재-20℃층고도지상，동시수직적분액태수함량(VIL)균유약증과정차기보편체65 kg·m-2시，지면개시측득빙박，당VIL약증도60 kg·m-2시발포빙박경보，예보시효최장칙가제전1～3개체소시간(약5～15 min)，당VIL강지40 kg·m-2이하시빙박과정결속。
The conventional meteorological observation data, observations from intensive automatic weather stations and Doppler weather ra-dar data at Haikou are used to analyze a rare severe hail weather event in Hainan on 20 March 2013. It is concluded that the convectively un-stable atmospheric stratification, in which the dry and cold air in the middle level pile up the warm and humid air in the low-level, and the in-version in the low have supplied the beneficial conditions for the accumulation of instable energy. The moderate or strong vertical wind shears are advantageous to the development and continuance of severe convection. The convergence line caused by sea-land breeze and the topo-graphic forcing effect are the main mechanism that triggers the low-trough type hail in Hainan. Four supercells were generated successively during this hail event. Two of them came from a mother’s echo and, one of them split into a right-moving supercell but the other into a left-moving supercell. A meso-anticyclone is found in the left-moving supercell, and the low-level weak echo region (WER) locates on the left backside of its moving direction. The righ-moving supercell was accompanied with a meso-cyclone, while the low-level WER was in the right backside of its moving direction. With the favorite heights of 0 ℃and-20 ℃ levels, the hail early warning can be issued as the three-body scatter spike (TBSS) in base reflectivity are found, and the forecasts have 20-30 min ahead of normal at most. Before hails fall down to surface, the echo's top height of 55 dBz reach above the height of-20℃level and the Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) was experi-enced a few jumps. When VIL reach 65 kg·m-2 in general, the hail weather occurred. The lead time comes up to three volume coverage patterns (VCP) time when issuing the hail warning as VIL reaches 60 kg·m-2. The hail event ends when VIL drops below 40 kg·m-2.