CAJ | 학술논문

为了分析时间因素对组合预测模型预测精度的影响，基于对长期内各预测方法预测精度稳定性的考虑，借鉴一维AR（ p）模型建模思路，提出了基于时间因素的组合预测模型建模方法。实例验证表明：相对于单个预测方法，考虑时间因素的组合预测方法的预测精度更高，且样本时间跨度越长，预测精度也越高。
위료분석시간인소대조합예측모형예측정도적영향，기우대장기내각예측방법예측정도은정성적고필，차감일유AR（ p）모형건모사로，제출료기우시간인소적조합예측모형건모방법。실례험증표명：상대우단개예측방법，고필시간인소적조합예측방법적예측정도경고，차양본시간과도월장，예측정도야월고。
To analyze the factor of time which affects the combined forecasting ’ s prediction accuracy , based on all of the forecasting method ’ s prediction accuracy stability , reference for the modeling thought of one-dimen-sion AR( p) model, we present the combined forecasting based on the factor of time .The example verification shows that the prediction accuracy of the combined forecasting based on the factor of time is higher than the sin -gle forecast method , and if the time span of samples is longer , the prediction accuracy is higher .