CAJ | 학술논문

以渭河流域1960-2005年的径流系数资料为基础，将渭河流域分为北道以上、北道-林家村、林家村-咸阳、咸阳-临潼（含张家山）、临潼-华县＋状头5个区域。分析了这5个区域和渭河流域径流系数的基本统计特征、年际变化，并运用R/S法进行持续性分析，Kendall秩次相关检验分析趋势性，功率谱分析法计算周期，Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法相结合分析突变。结果表明：渭河流域径流系数呈现显著的递减趋势并将继续持续下去，北道以上最显著周期为3年，北道-林家村最显著周期为2．66年，其他区域均无显著周期存在。径流系数突变发生在20世纪60年代末-70年代初、80年代-90年代初。由于人类活动和气候变化的影响，整体渭河流域降雨转化为径流的能力显著减弱并在未来还将继续减弱。
이위하류역1960-2005년적경류계수자료위기출，장위하류역분위북도이상、북도-림가촌、림가촌-함양、함양-림동（함장가산）、림동-화현＋상두5개구역。분석료저5개구역화위하류역경류계수적기본통계특정、년제변화，병운용R/S법진행지속성분석，Kendall질차상관검험분석추세성，공솔보분석법계산주기，Mann-Kendall법화루적거평법상결합분석돌변。결과표명：위하류역경류계수정현현저적체감추세병장계속지속하거，북도이상최현저주기위3년，북도-림가촌최현저주기위2．66년，기타구역균무현저주기존재。경류계수돌변발생재20세기60년대말-70년대초、80년대-90년대초。유우인류활동화기후변화적영향，정체위하류역강우전화위경류적능력현저감약병재미래환장계속감약。
Based on the data of runoff coefficient from 1960 to 2005 in Weihe River basin , the paper divid-ed Weihe River basin into five regions such as the upstream of Beidao , Beidao-Linjiacun,Linjiacun-Xian-yang,Xianyang-Lintong(including Zhangjiashan),Lintong-Huaxian+Zhuangtou.It analyzed the basic sta-tistical characteristics , inter-annual variation of runoff coefficient of the five regions , used R/S analysis method to conduct persistent analysis and took Kendall rank correlation test to conduct trend analysis ,used the method of power spectrum to computer period , combined Mann-Kendall and accumulative departure curve method to analyze mutation .The results showed that the runoff coefficient of Weihe River basin pres-ents a significant decreasing trend and will continue to decrease .The notable period in the upstream of Bei-dao is 3 years.The notable period in Beidao-Linjiacun is 2.66 years, all of the other regions have no notable cycle .Runoff coefficient mutation occurs in late 1960 s and early 1970 s, late 1980 s and early 1990 s.Due to the impacts of human activities and climate change , the transfer capacity from rainfall to runoff in whole Weihe River basin presents a significant decreasing trend and will continue to decrease .