CAJ | 학술논문

国内多数流域的径流观测资料只有50多年，限制了径流演变特性的分析。本文使用具有近百年观测的美国Sangamon河上游Monticello水文站1909-2012年的年径流资料，分析出径流的年际和年内变化及趋势性、持续性、突变点和周期。研究结果表明：该水文站径流的年际变化较大，年内分配不均；年径流序列具有显著的上升趋势，且具有正持续性；年径流序列的突变点发生在1922、1931、1942、1952与1967年；年径流序列存在10、23和56年的周期，56年的尺度周期最为显著。56年的周期已经超过了国内多数水文观测数据的长度。
국내다수류역적경류관측자료지유50다년，한제료경류연변특성적분석。본문사용구유근백년관측적미국Sangamon하상유Monticello수문참1909-2012년적년경류자료，분석출경류적년제화년내변화급추세성、지속성、돌변점화주기。연구결과표명：해수문참경류적년제변화교대，년내분배불균；년경류서렬구유현저적상승추세，차구유정지속성；년경류서렬적돌변점발생재1922、1931、1942、1952여1967년；년경류서렬존재10、23화56년적주기，56년적척도주기최위현저。56년적주기이경초과료국내다수수문관측수거적장도。
The runoff observation data of major watersheds has only 50 years in China , which limits the analysis of runoff evolution characteristics .This article analyzed the runoff variation of annual and season-al,its tendency, persistence, mutation point and period by use of runoff observation data for more then 100 years from 1909 to 2012 at Monticello hydrological station in the upperstream of Sangamon River in USA.The results showed that the annual change of runoff is greater ,the seasonal distribution is uneven;the annual runoff has an significant ascent trend and a positive persistence; the mutation of annual runoff took place in 1922, 1931, 1942, 1952 and 1967;the cycles of annual runoff are 10, 23 and 56 years. The cycle of 56 years is the most outstanding and has exceeded the length of major hydrological observa -tion data in China .