水资源与水工程学报
水資源與水工程學報
수자원여수공정학보
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENGINEERING
2014年
3期
8-13
,共6页
极端气候事件%极端降雨%极端降雨频次%Mann-Kendall法%稳定性分析%深圳市
極耑氣候事件%極耑降雨%極耑降雨頻次%Mann-Kendall法%穩定性分析%深圳市
겁단기후사건%겁단강우%겁단강우빈차%Mann-Kendall법%은정성분석%심수시
extreme climate events%extreme precipitation%frequency of extreme precipitation%Mann-Kendall method%analysis of stability%Shenzhen
全球气候变化导致极端气候事件频发，选择描述极端气候事件的相关指标，利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法等对深圳市1953-2012年极端气候指标进行分析。结果表明：总体上深圳市降水频次与极端降水量均呈现起伏不定的变化规律，四季极端降水量主要集中在夏季，全年和四季降水量均没有明显的变化趋势。深圳市极端气温总体呈现较为显著稳定的变化状况；极端高温事件不断增加，极端低温事件不断减少，且趋势显著，同一季节的气温差异性较大，且差异性呈现出比较显著的加大趋势。
全毬氣候變化導緻極耑氣候事件頻髮，選擇描述極耑氣候事件的相關指標，利用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗法等對深圳市1953-2012年極耑氣候指標進行分析。結果錶明：總體上深圳市降水頻次與極耑降水量均呈現起伏不定的變化規律，四季極耑降水量主要集中在夏季，全年和四季降水量均沒有明顯的變化趨勢。深圳市極耑氣溫總體呈現較為顯著穩定的變化狀況；極耑高溫事件不斷增加，極耑低溫事件不斷減少，且趨勢顯著，同一季節的氣溫差異性較大，且差異性呈現齣比較顯著的加大趨勢。
전구기후변화도치겁단기후사건빈발，선택묘술겁단기후사건적상관지표，이용Mann-Kendall추세검험법등대심수시1953-2012년겁단기후지표진행분석。결과표명：총체상심수시강수빈차여겁단강수량균정현기복불정적변화규률，사계겁단강수량주요집중재하계，전년화사계강수량균몰유명현적변화추세。심수시겁단기온총체정현교위현저은정적변화상황；겁단고온사건불단증가，겁단저온사건불단감소，차추세현저，동일계절적기온차이성교대，차차이성정현출비교현저적가대추세。
Extreme climate events are frequently occurred due to global climate change .The paper chose the relevant indexes which describe extreme climate event and used Mann-Kendall trend test method to analyze extreme climate indexes in Shenzhen from 1953 to 2012 .The results show that the precipitation frequency and extreme precipitation in Shenzhen presented the change law of ups and downs .The extreme precipitation of four seasons concentrated in the summer , the annual and seasonal precipitation had no obvious change tendency .The change of extreme temperature in Shenzhen is significant and stable , the extreme high temperature events continuously increase , the extreme low temperature events continuously decrease , and the trend is notable , the temperature difference of same season is greater , and the differ-ence appears a significant increase trend .
