CAJ | 학술논문

利用塔里木河三源流山区近50年的逐月降水量数据，借助非参数检验、小波变换等方法分析了塔里木河三源流山区旱涝指数的多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明：①阿克苏河与叶尔羌河源流山区旱涝指数呈显著的增加趋势，而和田河表现为不显著的增加。②三源流旱涝指数皆在1986年发生了显著性突变。③阿克苏河与和田河旱涝指数存在4和8年的显著周期，而叶尔羌河表现为8和10年的显著周期。以上研究为实现塔里木河水资源的合理利用提供科学依据。
이용탑리목하삼원류산구근50년적축월강수량수거，차조비삼수검험、소파변환등방법분석료탑리목하삼원류산구한로지수적다시간척도변화특정。결과표명：①아극소하여협이강하원류산구한로지수정현저적증가추세，이화전하표현위불현저적증가。②삼원류한로지수개재1986년발생료현저성돌변。③아극소하여화전하한로지수존재4화8년적현저주기，이협이강하표현위8화10년적현저주기。이상연구위실현탑리목하수자원적합리이용제공과학의거。
By use of monthly precipitation data measured in three headstreams of Tarim River in recent 50 years, this paper analyzed the multi-time scale variation characteristics of drought-flood index in virtue of the methods of nonparametric test and wavelet transforms .The results indicated that:① the drought-flood indexes are presents the apparent increasing trend in Aksu River and Yarkand River , and the insig-nificant rise in Hotan River .②The drought-flood indexes of the three headstreams took place remarkable mutation in 1986 .③There are significant periods of 4 and 8 years for drought-flood indexes of Aksu Riv-er and Hotan River , and there are that of 8 and 10 years in Yarkand River .The results can provide a sci-entific basis for the reasonable utilization of water resources in the Tarim River basin .