CAJ | 학술논문

选取延安市近十年的总人口、GDP等14项统计资料，利用主成分分析法分析研究了水资源承载力变化的驱动因子和总体趋势，并通过多元线性回归模型，基于经济社会发展目标对2015年和2020年延安市水资源的供需状况进行了预测。结果表明：社会经济状况、农业发展水平和水资源条件是影响承载力变化的三大成分，人口、GDP是主要驱动因子。近十年来水资源承载能力呈逐年下降趋势，随着社会经济的快速发展，2015、2020年仍将缺水0．38、0．46亿m3，水资源承载能力严重不足。
선취연안시근십년적총인구、GDP등14항통계자료，이용주성분분석법분석연구료수자원승재력변화적구동인자화총체추세，병통과다원선성회귀모형，기우경제사회발전목표대2015년화2020년연안시수자원적공수상황진행료예측。결과표명：사회경제상황、농업발전수평화수자원조건시영향승재력변화적삼대성분，인구、GDP시주요구동인자。근십년래수자원승재능력정축년하강추세，수착사회경제적쾌속발전，2015、2020년잉장결수0．38、0．46억m3，수자원승재능력엄중불족。
The paper used principal component analysis ( PCA) to study the driving factors and overall trend of change of water resources carrying capacity according to ten years statistical data of GDP and total population in Yan'an city from 2001 to 2010 .Based on the goals of economic and social development , it forecast the situation of supply and demand of water resources of Yan'an city in 2015 and 2020 by use of multiple linear regression model .The results show that the three components that affect carrying capacity of water resources are socioeconomic status , agricultural development level and water resource conditions . Moreover, population and GDP are the main driving factors ., the carrying capacity water resources de-clined year by year In recent ten years .With the rapid development of social economy , the water shortage in Yan'an in 2015 and 2020 will be 38 million cubic meters and 46 million cubic meters respectively .The carrying capacity of water resources is serious short .