CAJ | 학술논문

为较好的认识研究区的气候特征及其变化趋势，更好应对与气候变化相关方面的工作，利用伊宁站1952-2011年逐月平均气温与降水资料，采用线性趋势分析法和差积曲线法分析了伊宁市气候的年际、年代际变化特性及突变特性。结果表明：伊宁站平均气温表现为波动升高的趋势，并以春季和冬季气温升高最为明显，年平均气温的线性倾向率为每10年增加0．43℃；多年平均年降水量表现为波动增多的趋势，其中以秋季和冬季增加较明显，年平均降水量的线性倾向率为每10年增加13．0 mm；气温以20世纪70年代以后升高幅度较大，降水各年代际间总体表现为先减少后增加的波动变化趋势，其中50-70年代降水量呈减少趋势，80年代-21世纪降水量呈增加趋势，并以21世纪增加较明显；基于差积曲线法研究区气候特征表现为由过去的暖干向现在的暖湿过渡，这一趋势以1997年后较明显。
위교호적인식연구구적기후특정급기변화추세，경호응대여기후변화상관방면적공작，이용이저참1952-2011년축월평균기온여강수자료，채용선성추세분석법화차적곡선법분석료이저시기후적년제、년대제변화특성급돌변특성。결과표명：이저참평균기온표현위파동승고적추세，병이춘계화동계기온승고최위명현，년평균기온적선성경향솔위매10년증가0．43℃；다년평균년강수량표현위파동증다적추세，기중이추계화동계증가교명현，년평균강수량적선성경향솔위매10년증가13．0 mm；기온이20세기70년대이후승고폭도교대，강수각년대제간총체표현위선감소후증가적파동변화추세，기중50-70년대강수량정감소추세，80년대-21세기강수량정증가추세，병이21세기증가교명현；기우차적곡선법연구구기후특정표현위유과거적난간향현재적난습과도，저일추세이1997년후교명현。
In order to better know the climatic characteristics and trend of research area and cope with rele-vant work on climate change , the paper used the average monthly temperature and precipitation data at Yin-ing station from 1952 to 2011 ,and took linear trend analysis and difference plot curve methods to analyze the inter-annual , inter-decadal variation characteristics and mutation characteristics .It is found that the average in Yili station shows the tendency of fluctuation increase .The temperature go up obviously in spring and win-ter.The linear trend rate of average temperature of is 0.43℃/10a;The annual average rainfall shows a trend of fluctuated growing which is obvious in autumn and winter .The linear trend of annual average precipitation is 13.0mm/10a;The temperature has increased greatly since 1970's.The precipitation shows the volatility trends of decrease first and then increase ,there was a decreasing trend from 1950's to 1970's and increase trend.The precipitation shows an increasing trend from 1990's to 21st century and obviously increases in 21 st century;Based on the difference plot curve method , the climate characteristics presented a transition trend from the last warm dry to warm wet now .The trend has been clear since 1997 .