CAJ | 학술논문

作为北京水资源储备区，北京西山地区地下水位动态变化对北京市水资源管理具有重大意义。时间序列模型是研究预测地下水水位动态变化特征的有效方法。为了解北京西山地区地下水位未来变化趋势，本文选用北京西山地区地下水位长观序列，通过拟合序列的趋势项、周期项及随机项分量，建立地下水位动态变化模型。模型精度检验表明模型拟合程度良好，预测结果显示西山地区未来五年内地下水位呈现动态平衡状态。
작위북경수자원저비구，북경서산지구지하수위동태변화대북경시수자원관리구유중대의의。시간서렬모형시연구예측지하수수위동태변화특정적유효방법。위료해북경서산지구지하수위미래변화추세，본문선용북경서산지구지하수위장관서렬，통과의합서렬적추세항、주기항급수궤항분량，건입지하수위동태변화모형。모형정도검험표명모형의합정도량호，예측결과현시서산지구미래오년내지하수위정현동태평형상태。
As a reserve area of water resources in Beijing , the dynamic change of groundwater level in Xishan region is of great significance to water resources management .Time series analysis is an effective tool to predict the dynamic change of groundwater level .In order to investigate the variation trend of groundwater level in Xishan region , the paper built the dynamic variation model of groundwater level by use of long monitoring data series of groundwater level in Xishan region of Beijing through fitting the trend component , periodic component and stochastic component of the series .The accuracy test of model indi-cated that fitting degree of model is good and the groundwater level in this region will appear the state of dynamic balance in the following five years .